An Article, an Audio CD Set, and a best selling Book by Elizabeth Kolbert

Scientific Article by Giavonni Strona & Corey Bradshaw, Science Magazine, Dec. 16, 2022

ABSTRACT ~ Although theory identifies coextinctions as a main driver of biodiversity loss, their role at the planetary scale has yet to be estimated. We subjected a global model of interconnected terrestrial vertebrate food webs to future (2020–2100) climate and land-use changes. We predict a 17.6% (± 0.16% SE) average reduction of local vertebrate diversity globally by 2100, with coextinctions increasing the effect of primary extinctions by 184.2% (± 10.9% SE) on average under an intermediate emissions scenario. Communities will lose up to a half of ecological interactions, thus reducing trophic complexity, network connectance, and community resilience. The model reveals that the extreme toll of global change for vertebrate diversity might be of secondary importance compared to the damages to ecological network structure.

INTRODUCTION ~ The planet has entered the sixth mass extinction (1–5). There are multiple causes underlying the rapid increase in observed and modeled extinction rates in recent times, of which land-use change, overharvesting, pollution, climate change, and biological invasions figure as dominant processes (6). However, assessing the relative importance and the realistic impact of such drivers at the global scale remains a challenge. Another aspect rendering assessment difficult are the synergies between drivers — a species might go extinct for multiple, simultaneous reasons, and in such contexts, ecological interactions play a fundamental role in predicting its fate (7). Growing recognition of the importance of species interactions in promoting the emergence of biodiversity in complex natural communities implies that an additional, fundamental component of biodiversity loss is represented by the amplification of primary extinctions across ecological networks. Coextinction — the loss of species caused by direct or indirect effects stemming from other extinctions — is now recognized as a major contributor to global biodiversity loss, strongly amplifying the effect of primary (e.g., climate-driven) extinctions (8–11).

Networks of ecological interactions are central to global patterns of diversity loss not only because coextinctions can be triggered by other extinction drivers, but also because network structure and dynamics might modulate several processes that can either reduce or increase extinction rate. For example, it is intuitive that a species’ success in colonizing a new area depends strongly on its ability to exploit local resources while simultaneously escaping enemies (predators and parasites). The addition of the new species might also initiate substantial changes to and have important cascading effects in the local network. Ignoring the structure of ecological networks and how they reconfigure as their constituent diversity changes therefore gives a possibly misleading view of the future of global diversity.

Previous attempts to predict the future of global diversity in the face of climate change and habitat modification have only considered the direct effects of these drivers on species (typically on single taxonomic groups), without explicitly accounting for ecological interactions. For instance, Thomas et al. (12) used projections of species’ distributions and species-area relationships to predict extinction rates for 20% of Earth’s surface, and Malcolm et al. (13) applied both species-area and endemic-area relationships to predictions of biome shift under climate change in Biodiversity Hotspots. van Vuuren et al. (14) also applied species-area relationships to vascular plants to project extinctions under different land-use and climate-change scenarios within the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, and Jetz et al. (15) used a similar approach for birds. Others have applied analogous techniques to many other taxa, including lizards (16), crop wild relatives (17), chelonians (18), bird, amphibians, and corals (19). Later, Warren et al. (20) applied point-process and global circulation models to predict climate change–induced shifts in species’ distributions, and Urban (21) did a meta-analysis (including many of the studies cited above) to predict extinction rates of various taxa under several climate-change scenarios. Despite this extensive research foundation, future inferences of biodiversity’s fate over the coming century are likely to underestimate extinctions arising from global change (11).

Apart from the obvious modeling and computational challenges to incorporate interactions among species, the main reason why there are few studies accounting for interactions is that obtaining sufficient data in most communities is intractable. Therefore, global-scale modeling of entire ecosystems appears to be the only viable solution, even if a challenging one (11, 22). Recent developments in network approaches have shown that potential ecological interactions can be derived by applying different techniques (e.g., machine learning) to available datasets on species distribution and ecology (23, 24). In previous work (11), we built on that idea to generate global-scale models of biodiversity by including species interactions using virtual species constructed to follow real-world archetypes. In such synthetic approaches, a virtual species is a plausible ecological entity that has a combination of ecological traits consistent with real-world species despite not corresponding exactly to them.

There are several advantages in using virtual species in this manner. The first is that once the rules have been set to generate virtual species, current gaps and biases in biodiversity sampling cease to be a limitation; we can use virtual species to populate the entire Earth and generate plausible ecological communities, even in areas where data on local diversity are scarce or missing. Second, virtual species avoid preconceptions (and biases) about current biodiversity patterns, permitting instead a focus on the processes involved in change. Here, we can populate an entire virtual planet with species, let them develop communities based on a modest set of realistic ecological rules and assumptions, and then explore the emerging patterns. With such an approach, real-world data serve as a template for generating the virtual species and for identifying the basic ecological rules controlling community dynamics and as a benchmark with which to validate the realism of modeled predictions.

We previously demonstrated how coextinctions increase the pace of annihilation of life on Earth by up to 10 times relative to primary extinctions, but only in the face of catastrophic, no-return environmental change modeled as either extreme planetary heating or cooling (11). Although an instructive proof of concept, that model contained many simplifications and was applied to (hopefully) unrealistic scenarios of global change. Building on that original approach, here we developed a more complex, and ecologically realistic dynamic model to represent all terrestrial vertebrate communities with which we project future biodiversity trends. By accounting for both primary extinctions and their resulting coextinctions, the model predicts the cumulative toll on global biodiversity of different climate and land-use change projections up to 2100 at a spatial scale of 1° × 1° and at a monthly temporal resolution. In addition to providing estimates of potential global diversity loss, the model quantifies the relative contribution of the different extinction drivers at the global scale for the first time.

This Article continues in Science Magazine.

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See also: The Sixth Extinction? | Elizabeth Kolbert, The New Yorker Magazine, May 18, 2009

 New Shale Bills in the WV Legislature

From the article by Casey Junkins, Wheeling Intelligencer, February 24, 2003

Via the proposed West Virginia Futures Fund, state Senate President Jeff Kessler, D-Marshall, wants all residents to benefit from the Marcellus shale rush for years to come. This is just one of several bills introduced during the regular session of the Legislature that would impact the Mountain State’s burgeoning natural gas and oil drilling industry.

With Chesapeake Energy now drawing oil from wells in Ohio and Marshall counties, there is clear potential for the shale boom to create sustained economic growth. However, as Dels. Mike Manypenny, D-Taylor, and Barbara Evans Fleischauer, D-Monongalia, point out in bills they have introduced, concerns regarding the safety of horizontal drilling and fracking remain. Manypenny represents the county where a blast at an EQT Corp. drilling site this month left one worker dead.

Futures Fund

Kessler and Sen. Rocky Fitzsimmons, D-Ohio, are among those sponsoring Senate Bill 167, which would establish the West Virginia Futures Fund. The bill would create the fund to hold 25 percent of the increased revenue the state receives from severance taxes to be appropriated by the Legislature at a later time. The object of the program would be similar to one in Alaska that allows residents to benefit from drilling.

Development Account

House Bill 2435 sponsors include Dels. Mike Ferro, D-Marshall; Dave Pethtel, D-Wetzel; Ryan Ferns, D-Ohio; Randy Swartzmiller, D-Hancock; and Erikka Storch, R-Ohio. This bill would help fund infrastructure projects in counties that produce Marcellus and Utica shale gas. Ten percent of everything the state collects from oil and gas drilling – over the $64.8 million baseline – would benefit the counties and cities directly impacted by drilling and fracking. The remaining 90 percent would be placed into the new Marcellus Development Account for later infrastructure projects.

Earthquake Monitoring

Another piece of legislation, HB 2255, is sponsored by Swartzmiller, Fleischauer and Manypenny. This bill would require monitoring of seismic activity near both production well and wastewater injection well sites for possible earthquakes. This is similar to action taken in Ohio following an earthquake near a Youngstown injection well last year.

A briny wastewater injection well should not be confused with a Marcellus or Utica shale production well. After gas drillers pump millions of gallons of fracking fluid – consisting mostly of water and sand, but also including different chemical combinations that vary per the choice of the driller – into a production well, much of this substance flushes back up through the shaft. The fracking fluid combines with minerals and mud from the earth to create the briny wastewater, which must be discarded.

Water Sources

Manypenny and Fleischauer are sponsoring HB 2256, which would require “cradle to grave” monitoring of water withdrawals from the state’s water resources. According to the legislation, each monitoring system “shall include the use of hydrants with a backflow preventer to protect the state’s streams and rivers from contamination from truck wastewater backflow.” The bill authorizing rulemaking and fee collection for the monitoring program.

Landmen Regulations

Manypenny is also sponsoring HB 2280, a measure to require “landmen” – those who sign contracts with mineral owners – to meet specific requirements before working in West Virginia. Unless these individuals are members of the American Association of Professional Landmen, the legislation would compel them to have at least two years of experience in contracting before being allowed to sign Marcellus Shale leases in the Mountain State.

It also requires the landmen to complete an ethics class. “Most new landmen are challenged by the fact that they have to be an analyst, manager, salesman and negotiator all at the same time,” the bill states.

Forced Pooling

Nicholas “Corky” DeMarco, executive director of the West Virginia Oil and Natural Gas Association, is not sure if his organization will make another push for forced pooling legislation as it has in past years.

As of last Friday, a forced pooling bill had not been introduced. “I am not sure if we will make a push for it or not. I don’t know whether there is much of an interest in doing anything here other than building jails,” he said when asked of his organization’s intentions.

Forced pooling – which is now illegal for horizontal Marcellus drilling in West Virginia – would allow natural gas drillers to draw gas and minerals from land they have not leased.

“Pooling is necessary if you are going to realize maximum output. Sometimes, you get someone who has 5 acres right in the middle of something – they are keeping their neighbors from developing their gas,” DeMarco said.

The Legislature considered a provision for forced pooling in 2011, but ultimately decided against it after many landowners voiced concerns about losing their ability to negotiate better lease deals from the gas companies.

The Legislature’s regular session ends April 13, 2013.