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“Think Resilience: Preparing Communities for the Rest of the 21st Century

Duane Nichols — Sat, 13 May 2017 05:05:42 +0000

Richard Heinberg Lecture Series

Chapter 5: Think Resilience: Pollution

From a Series by Richard Heinberg, Resilience.Org, May 8, 2017

In nature, waste from one organism is food for another. However, that principle sometimes breaks down and waste becomes poison. Humans aren’t the only possible sources of environmental pollution. But these days the vast majority of pollution does come from human activities. That’s because we humans are able to use energy and tools to extract, transform, use, and discard ever-larger quantities of natural resources, producing wastes of many kinds and in ever-larger quantities.

Here, Richard Heinberg explores the topic of pollution — in particular greenhouse gas emissions, which are the greatest threat to humans and other species.

This is the fifth video in our 22-part online course “Think Resilience: Preparing Communities for the Rest of the 21st Century,” which explores how communities can build resilience in the face of our intertwined sustainability crises. The series is intended for students and concerned individuals of all ages.

View transcript

View Chapter 1: Introduction

View Chapter 2: Energy

View Chapter 3: Population & Consumption

View Chapter 4: Depletion

New chapters will be rolled out on a regular basis over the coming weeks, but you can also sign up to view all the videos right away.

Richard Heinberg's 22 Part Series

Shale Gas Reserves are Finite, if Uncertain!

S. Tom Bond — Mon, 02 Feb 2015 14:45:21 +0000

Whither Shale Gas? Certainty and Uncertainty Abound!

Commentary by S. Tom Bond, Retired Chemistry Professor & Resident Farmer, Lewis County, WV

What can be said about projections for natural gas from shale? Other than generally over-estimated, a more accurate statement cannot be made – yet. The first item to consider is the reserve. Perhaps the most accurate figures are available from research done for the Post-Carbon Institute by David Hughes. His article in Nature, one of the two top scientific journals of the world, titled Natural Gas: The Fracking Fallacy, published December 3, 2014, is a further development of the theme and is a classic. It compares estimates by the U. S. Energy Information Agency and smaller, more limited but more detailed estimates. The EIA was found wanting, which was verified by their own publication, cited in the Nature article, published the 14th of October in 2014.

The article by Hughes referred to above is titled “Drilling Deeper“, subtitled “A Reality Check on U. S. Government Forecasts for a Lasting Tight Oil and Shale Gas Boom,” is a further development of the theme. It lists EIA reductions in reserve estimates and gives reasons to doubt they have it correct yet. Page 5 shows graphics of reductions of estimates of one of the Marcellus which estimate has been reduced from 410 Trillion cubic feet to 84 tcf, a factor of 80% by 2011. The same graphic shows reduction of Poland’s shale gas by 99%. The estimate of oil availabe from the Monterey Tight Oil was reduced by 96%.

Hughes survey involves seven tight oil plays and seven shale gas plays, involving 89% of current oil production and 88% current gas production from shale. The primary source of data for this analysis is Drillinginfo, a commercial database of well production data widely used by industry and government, including the EIA. Hughes concludes ” Tight oil production from major plays will peak before 2020. (That’s 5 years.) Also “Shale gas production from the top seven plays will likely peak before 2020.

He makes estimates of production for 2040, based on present drilling methods and without regard for price – essentially what can be, rather than what will be (see more below). His average first year field decline rate for Marcellus is 32% and average 3-year well decline rate is given as 74-82%. See page 11, where all seven fields are listed.

Hughes’ implications for the future of gas are hugely important, i.e. the EIA’s rosy forecasts have led policymakers and the American public to believe a number of false promises:

· That cheap and abundant natural gas supplies can create a domestic manufacturing resurgence and millions of new jobs over the long term.
· That abundant domestic oil and natural gas resources justify lifting the oil export ban (imposed 40 years ago after the Arab oil embargo)and fast- tracking approval of liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals.
· That the U.S. can use its newfound energy strength to shift geopolitical trends in our long-term favor.
· That we can easily limit carbon dioxide emissions from power plants as a result of natural gas replacing coal as the primary source of electricity production.

David Hughes report is chosen here because of that author’s expertise and because the analysis is more “fine grained,” it uses data from individual wells.

Hughes deals with the characteristics of individual wells and fields based on them. There are other influences he cannot deal with, however. I shall address some of them here. One is the decline of production as the drilling is forced out of “sweet spots.” These are areas of relatively high production. They were actively sought out at the beginning of production, because they bring the highest return on money and effort invested. That is the way all mineral development is done. It is sometimes expressed as “the easy stuff is taken out first.”

Because of rapid decline of shale wells, new wells must be drilled constantly. How available will the necessary capital be? That depends on the availability and the attitude of potential investors. Availability depends on the general economy. A crash would tighten up investment money. It also depends on the perception of reward (magnitude of profit), which will certainly be declining due to the fact these wells do not last; to increased public opposition and active campaigns of disinvestment from fossil fuels; to the continuing increase in efficiency of solar and wind; and to the inevitability of failures of companies due to low oil prices.

I think fracking will become less popular with the public as time passes by and the devastation it causes becomes better known – that is certainly the trend now, witness the extensive advertising the industry must put out to influence public opinion.

The biggie is how will the price of oil affect the demand for fracked gas. There is a world-wide slowdown in the economy, while the over-production of oil and gas in the U. S. is a factor, but decline in demand, is often forgotten. Lower growth than expected has occurred in Europe and Asia.

More about this here and here. To paraphrase some college textbooks, “The Author leaves as an exercise for the reader,” the resolution of this video which shows both Senator Shelly Moore Caputo (R – WV) and Martin J. Durban, President of America’s Natural Gas Alliance, saying or implying the reserve estimates are increasing.

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Public Presentation: Utica Shale: Digging Deeper

Professor Terry Englender of Penn State University is scheduled to speak in Potter County on Utica Shale on February 17th at 7 pm in the Gunzburger Building on Main Street in Coudersport, PA. The talk is entitled: “Utica Shale: Digging Deeper.” His work at Penn State University is sponsored by six international energy companies.

Sunday School 103: Petrolify® — Don’t Just Seize the Day, Seize Life

Duane Nichols — Sat, 13 Sep 2014 12:39:59 +0000

Now Seize the Day, Seize Life

Have you already been taking Petrolify® ? Do you need more, in easy to take tablet form?

Message from the Post Carbon Institute, www.PostCarbon.org, September 3, 2014

Imagine there was a pill you could take every day that would provide you with wealth, freedom, and luxuries beyond the imagination of even the wealthiest kings of yesteryear. Taking this pill would give you the equivalent of hundreds of slaves, working for you 24/7, to grow your food, cool and heat your home, entertain you, carry you however far you wanted to travel, fill your bath with hot water, you name it … that’d be amazing!

Well, guess what? You’re already taking it. And it’s called Petrolify®.

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Check out this Petrolify video on YouTube:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RhgBeT_gkJU&feature=youtube_gdata_player

Post Carbon Institute: Founded in 2003, Post Carbon Institute is leading the transition to a more resilient, equitable, and sustainable world.

Post Carbon Institute provides individuals, communities, businesses, and governments with the resources needed to understand and respond to the interrelated economic, energy, environmental, and equity crises that define the 21st century. We envision a world of resilient communities and re-localized economies that thrive within ecological bounds.

Post Carbon Institute: Can Fracking Bring Energy Independence?

Duane Nichols — Fri, 28 Sep 2012 15:58:00 +0000

: New book on Alternative Energy Sources

Post Carbon Institute has provided the following article:

Post Carbon Institute‘s Fossil Fuels Fellow David Hughes is currently researching and writing Drill, Baby, Drill: Can Unconventional Fossil Fuels Usher in an Era of Energy Independence? Slated for a January 2013 release, the report findings refute fossil fuel industry claims that unconventional supplies of oil and gas in North America will provide vast quantities of useful energy, be environmentally benign, create jobs and provide a robust economic boost.

While impacted communities and environmental activists are raising the alarm over the environmental and health impacts of fracking and production of bitumen in the Alberta tar sands, the key argument used by oil and gas proponents—that these resources can usher in a whole new golden era of energy independence and security—hasn’t really been challenged. That’s where our report comes in.

Hughes’ previous report, Will Natural Gas Fuel the 21st Century?, has been downloaded more than 17,000 times by citizens, advocates and government officials. The report states:

Natural gas has increasingly been touted as a “bridge fuel” from high-carbon sources of energy like coal and oil to a renewable energy future. This is based on renewed optimism on the ability of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing to access natural gas from previously inaccessible shale gas deposits. A review of the latest outlook (2011) of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reveals that all eggs have been placed in the shale gas basket in terms of future growth in U.S. gas production. Without shale gas, U.S. domestic gas production is projected to fall by 20% through 2035.

Shale gas is characterized by high-cost, rapidly depleting wells that require high energy and water inputs. There is considerable controversy about the impacts of hydraulic fracturing on the contamination of surface water and groundwater, as well as the disposal of toxic drilling fluids produced from the wells. A moratorium has been placed on shale gas drilling in New York State. Other analyses place the marginal cost of shale gas production well above current gas prices, and above the EIA’s price assumptions for most of the next quarter century. An analysis of the EIA’s gas production forecast reveals that record levels of drilling will be required to achieve it, along with incumbent environmental impacts. Full-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from shale gas may also be worse than previously understood, and possibly worse than coal.

Even assuming the EIA forecast for growth in shale gas production can be achieved, there is little scope for wholesale replacement of coal for electricity generation or oil for transportation in its outlook. Replacing coal would require a 64% increase of lower-48 gas production over and above 2009 levels, heavy vehicles a further 24% and light vehicles yet another 76%. This would also require a massive build out of new infrastructure, including pipelines, gas storage and refueling facilities, and so forth. This is a logistical, geological, environmental, and financial pipe dream.

Although a shift to natural gas is not a silver bullet, there are many other avenues that can yield lower GHG emissions and fuel requirements and thus improve energy security. More than half of the coal-fired electricity generation fleet is more than 42 years old. Many of these plants are inefficient and have few if any pollution controls. As much as 21% of coal-fired capacity will be retired under new U.S. Environmental Protection Agency regulations set to take effect in 2015. Best-in-class technologies for both natural-gas- and coal-fired generation can reduce CO2 emissions by 17% and 24%, respectively, and reduce other pollutants.

Capturing waste heat from these plants for district and process heating can provide further increases in overall efficiency. The important role of natural gas for uses other than electricity generation in the industrial, commercial, and residential sectors, which constitute 70% of current natural gas consumption and for which there is no substitute at this time, must also be kept in mind. Natural gas vehicles are likely to increase in a niche role for high-mileage, short-haul applications.

Strategies for energy sustainability must focus on reducing energy demand and optimizing the use of the fuels that must be burnt. At the end of the day, hydrocarbons that aren’t burnt produce no emissions. Capital- and energy-intensive “solutions” such as carbon capture and storage are questionable at best and inconsistent with the whole notion of energy sustainability at worst.

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