Frack Check WV » polar vortex

Explaining That Colder Winters Can Occur With Global Warming

Diana Gooding — Sun, 08 Dec 2019 06:04:21 +0000

National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA)

The Paradox of Global Warming and Colder Winters

From an Article of WhoWhatWhy.org, WWW Internet, November 23, 2019

If you are shivering in a freezing, snow-blanketed part of the world, global warming might seem like a fine thing to have. But, believe it or not, you can thank global warming for this cold weather.

The summer of 2019 was the hottest on record in the northern hemisphere, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). And there were other extremes this summer — severe drought in India, rains and record floods in the American Midwest, devastating fires in the American West and in Australia. And now the cold.

It seems as if we’re trading weather with the Arctic. We send up our hot air — and the Arctic sends down its cold air.

But here’s a more scientific explanation: It’s all about the jet stream, a ribbon of fast-moving air that flows west to east over the Northern Hemisphere. NOAA defines it this way: “Jet streams are the major means of transport for weather systems. A jet stream is an area of strong winds ranging from 120–250 mph that can be thousands of miles long, a couple of hundred miles across and a few miles deep… This means most jet streams are about 6–9 miles off the ground.”

But how does it work? And why does it make the summers warmer and the winters colder? Please see the story below for answers.

Recent headlines on climate events should make things difficult for the average global warming/climate change denier:

Last year was the fourth hottest year on record, globally. And, just two days ago, on June 13, Greenland lost two billion tons of ice.

The Arctic is heating up twice as fast as the rest of the world. Because of the warm air above, the Arctic sea ice melts, turning its surface from one that reflects to one that absorbs solar energy, warming up the water even more. Without the ice cover, water evaporates, contributing to greenhouse gases. A vicious circle.

And the levels of carbon dioxide — the greenhouse gas considered most responsible for global warming — have reached 415 PPM (parts per million), the highest they have ever been in human history.

But will all of this disastrous news make global warming and climate change more difficult to deny? Probably not, because when winter comes, it may be colder than ever, and last longer.

And try to explain this to the denier: the winters are colder — because the planet is heating up.

Here is a video that will show you just how that happens, as well as a lot of other amazing things about our planet:

https://youtu.be/yQliow4ghtU

Photo credit: Adapted by WhoWhatWhy from NASA.

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PRESS RELEASE: “Effects of climate change”
Met Office, UK Government, December 5, 2019

Climate change is already having visible effects on the world. The Earth is warming, rainfall patterns are changing, and sea levels are rising. These changes can increase the risk of heatwaves, floods, droughts, and fires.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/climate-and-climate-change/climate-change/effects-of-climate-change

Electricity Supply — PJM System Meets Challenge of Cold Snap

Duane Nichols — Thu, 11 Jan 2018 09:05:08 +0000

Last week's cold snap brought three of PJM Interconnection’s top 10 highest winter peak demands for electricity

Regional Transmission Organization (RTO) cites improvements since “Polar Vortex”

From PJM Interconnection, January 09, 2018

VALLEY FORGE, Pa., Jan. 9, 2018 /PRNewswire/ — The cold weather from Dec. 27, 2017 through Jan. 7, 2018, brought three of PJM Interconnection’s top 10 highest winter peak demands for electricity. The grid operator credits planning and lessons learned implemented from the Polar Vortex for system resilience during this season’s first cold snap.

“After the Polar Vortex [of 2014], PJM worked with our members to better prepare to meet the demands of the system in cold weather,” said Mike Bryson, vice president – Operations. “We implemented the Capacity Performance construct’s strict standards for resources, strengthened communications with gas pipelines and improved preparation coordination with members. Member companies also made modifications to improve equipment performance. In the end, we saw better availability of resources during the extreme cold.”

Bryson said that PJM worked with members on cold weather preparedness, a fuel inventory survey, resource testing and a drill for emergency procedures. The cold weather exercises allow units to identify and correct start-up, operational and fuel switching issues prior to cold weather operations. PJM will continue to work with its members, he said, to improve reliable operations.

Generators qualifying as Capacity Performance resources must be ready to deliver electricity in a PJM power supply emergency. Generators must have firm fuel supplies or be able to switch to a secondary fuel or fuel source.

Friday evening, Jan. 5, PJM recorded its fourth-highest wintertime peak demand for electricity. At 7 p.m. (eastern) Friday, demand for electricity reached 138,465 megawatts. The other two top 10 winter peak demands were 136,206 MW on the morning of Jan. 5 (eighth highest) and 136,125 MW on Jan. 3 (10th highest).

During the run of 11 days, the average RTO-wide temperature did not reach as high as 20 degrees. The average low temperature was 2.9 degrees on Jan. 1, 2018.

Each year, PJM analyzes the expected demand for electricity, weather predictions and other factors to develop its forecast for the season’s operations.

Among the factors PJM looked at this year was a southward shift in the polar vortex that caused unusually cool weather in August of 2017. That shift indicated a risk of periods of arctic cold through the winter of 2017-2018.

PJM Interconnection, founded in 1927, ensures the reliability of the high-voltage electric power system serving 65 million people in all or parts of Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia and the District of Columbia. PJM coordinates and directs the operation of the region’s transmission grid, which includes over 82,000 miles of transmission lines; administers a competitive wholesale electricity market; and plans regional transmission expansion improvements to maintain grid reliability and relieve congestion. PJM’s regional grid and market operations produce annual savings of $2.8 billion to $3.1 billion. For the latest news about PJM, visit PJM Inside Lines at insidelines.pjm.com

SOURCE PJM Interconnection, http://www.pjm.com

OMG It’s Cold — The Polar Vortex and the Jet Stream

Duane Nichols — Fri, 05 Jan 2018 09:05:58 +0000

Amazing view of polar vortex & jet stream storm

The Polar Vortex, Winter Storm Grayson, and Climate Change: What’s the Connection?

From an Article by Brenda Ekwurzel, Union of Concerned Scientists, January 4, 2018

Forecasters are trotting out “polar vortex” and atypical terms like “Nor’easter bomb” and “bombogenesis.” These words signal the unusual and dangerous conditions forecast for winter storm Grayson and their implications for the southeast US, mid-Atlantic, and eventually New England and beyond. What do they mean?

Meteorologists use the phrase bombogenesis to describe a sudden and extreme drop in barometric pressure of at least 24 millibars over 24 hours, which leads to rapid intensification of a mid-latitude cyclone. We are used to hearing about North Atlantic cyclones during summer and fall—its the meteorological term for hurricanes—and now winter storm Grayson is drawing moisture from a similar cyclonic circulation that will bring blizzard conditions as it moves northeast just offshore of the US east coast.

Winter weather and global warming

With cold temperatures and icy conditions leaving the continental US reeling over the New Year, it might seem counter-intuitive to say that we’re still experiencing global warming. But as my colleague Peter Frumhoff puts it, saying that climate change isn’t occurring because of the cold in the eastern US is “like saying if everyone around me is wealthy then poverty is not a problem…local weather is not an indicator of changes in climate.”

Global warming is exactly that: global. The total area of the US, including Alaska and Hawaii, is only about 2 percent of the surface area of Earth. This map from the University of Maine Climate Change Institute showing the deviations from average temperature for this time of year demonstrates this concept well—much of the continental US may be unusually cold right now but most of the rest of the world is well above average.

Much of the continental US may be unusually cold right now but most of the rest of the world is well above average.

Alaska has been unusually warm this winter even though it is in the Arctic. It might seem strange that local weather events such as a balmy Alaska and freezing Florida can occur at the same time, but they’re examples of another phenomenon we can expect from a changing climate: more events at the extremes. Many scientists are studying these clues to explore the connections between a rapidly warming Arctic from climate change and shifting extreme weather patterns in northern hemispheremid-latitudes (i.e. the continental US and Eurasia).

Arctic cold outbursts reach the southern US

Scientists noticed an unusual winter pattern in the jet stream that started around the year 2000. Before that time the jet stream was typically fast with small waves that kept the cold air contained in the Arctic region. However, the jet stream began slowing down, and its waves meandering more.

The distance between the peak (like the green and yellow band peaking near the intersection of the borders between Alaska and the Yukon Territory of Canada in Figure) and the trough (the highlighted red, yellow, and green area near the southern US) has become much longer since the 2000s when compared to prior decades.

Scientific process and progress in understanding extreme weather

Scientists are making progress in better understanding how much natural seasonal patterns, ocean cycles, and other factors play a role in altering the jet stream and how much global warming is responsible. Some say a lot, others not as much. This is a robust scientific discussion that has continued to evolve over the past several years.

One thing is certain: no climate scientists say there is zero contribution from global warming. We agree on 90 percent of the facts of the issue—now we’re debating the remaining 10 percent.

How will we know when this particular scientific debate is over? One way or another, the scientific community will reach consensus—just as it has with climate change more broadly.

Assessments will shift toward keeping track of the changing percentage of contribution from climate change to the altered jet stream. And we’ll really know consensus is reached when this research is incorporated into longer-term outlooks for winter forecasts. In fact, a recent publication suggests that if the Arctic indicators—such as the strength or weakness of the polar vortex—were better incorporated into current winter forecasts, we could have two- to six-week previews of the winter temperatures in the northern hemisphere just like we get our 10-day forecast today.

If predictions become reliable enough, this could help cities and counties plan to distribute snow removal equipment to regions that will need it well in advance of storms. This knowledge may better protect people facing risks to their daily lives from the consequences of extreme cold winter storm events.

Does the Polar Vortex Mean ‘So Much for Global Warming’?

Duane Nichols — Fri, 31 Jan 2014 02:46:14 +0000

Note Unusual Weather Pattern

The Misbehaving Jet Stream has Upset Weather in the East (colder) and West (dry & hot)!

From an Article by Michael Mann, EcoWatch.com, January 30, 2014

Over the past couple of months, the some of the U.S. has seen the return of something many believed had been lost for good: cold weather. Although the current temperatures in the eastern U.S. may seem unusually cold, in the context of our history they really aren’t.

In fact, most of the cold that has made the news lately hasn’t been all that chilly compared what was “normal” for the 20th century. The bottom line? Because the last decade was the hottest on record (and just a year ago, the U.S. saw its warmest year ever) Americans have grown accustomed to warmer winters that make normal cold feel extreme.

Some then wonder why this winter has been so (normally) cold and why temperatures in Peoria this winter have not been warmed by climate change to, say, a balmy 60 degrees F?

Well, the short answer is that cold winters still happen even in a warmed world, but that doesn’t mean it’s cold everywhere. Alaska, usually snowy and frigid, has had two weeks of record high temperatures. Amazingly, the second half of January has averaged 40 degrees F above normal during some days in the central and western parts of the state.

The persistently jagged jet stream we have witnessed in recent weeks has led most recently to a “Drunken Arctic.” Stumbling south with polar winds and snow, this unexpected meteorological event has our collective attention. It is an unusual enough, if not unprecedented, event.

So, is there a climate connection to this strange occurrence? While more study is certainly needed, I have been increasingly impressed by the growing body of evidence that climate change may lead to more persistent meanders in the jet stream. In a world without global warming, the temperature difference between the freezing Arctic and warmer lower latitudes creates a pressure field that confines the jet stream to a relatively tight band around the Arctic, with wave-like meanders characterized by ephemeral “ridges” and “troughs.”

As the Arctic melts and warms, however, that temperature difference is reduced, and the meanders of the jet stream potentially become more pronounced and more sluggish. The more sluggish and persistent those meanders, the more persistent the patterns of regional warmth where the jet stream pulls warm air northward, and the regional cold where it pulls arctic air south.

Looking at this image of temperature deviations we can see how the Arctic, in its “drunken” meandering, has fallen head over heels, hitting the southeastern U.S. like an over-enthusiastic reveler face-planting in the gutter shortly after closing time. The large purple region over the eastern U.S. represents weather 20 degrees F colder than the 1979-2000 average. Compare that to the massive red expanse over Alaska and Canada, which indicates weather 20 degrees F warmer than the same baseline.

Perfectly encapsulating the upside-down, hung-over Arctic is this remarkable observation, courtesy of Jeff Masters of the popular Weather Underground blog: At 10 p.m. on Jan. 26 the temperature in Homer, Alaska (54 degrees F) was warmer than any other place in the contiguous U.S. except southern Florida and southern California.

As we approach Groundhog Day, celebrated in the iconic nearby town of Punxsutawney, the question we’re all asking here in central Pennsylvania of whether or not we’ll see an extended winter may in fact depend on what is happening instead thousands of miles to the north in the melting Arctic.

And the very same jet stream configuration responsible for the southward plunging Arctic air mass that chilling the eastern U.S. is associated further to the west with a “ridge” of high pressure that is pushing the warm, moist subtropical Pacific air masses that would normally deliver plentiful rainfall (and snowpack) to California well to the north.

Climate scientists were beginning to suspect a decade ago that the dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice might alter the jet stream in precisely this way, favoring conditions eerily like what we are seeing right now in California: unprecedented and devastating drought.

So to conclude, I propose a toast to the Arctic, whose instability should serve as a wake-up call to those steeped in denial. When it comes to kicking our “fossil fuel addiction” (as former president George W. Bush referred to it), let’s hope we’re not much further from hitting rock bottom. Because when a drunken Arctic leaves Alaska warmer than Georgia in mid-winter, and California as high and dry as it has ever been, we should know we (may) have a problem.

Also visit EcoWatch’s CLIMATE CHANGE page.