Climate change promotes extreme weather worldwide

From an Article by Seth Borenstein, Associated Press, July 5, 2021

The deadly heat wave that roasted the Pacific Northwest and western Canada was virtually impossible without human-caused climate change that added a few extra degrees to the record-smashing temperatures, a new quick scientific analysis found.

An international team of 27 scientists calculated that climate change increased chances of the extreme heat occurring by at least 150 times, but likely much more.

The study, not yet peer reviewed, said that before the industrial era, the region’s late June triple-digit heat was the type that would not have happened in human civilization. And even in today’s warming world, it said, the heat was a once-in-a-millennium event.

But that once-in-a-millennium event would likely occur every five to 10 years once the world warms another 1.4 degrees (0.8 degrees Celsius), said Wednesday’s study from World Weather Attribution. That much warming could be 40 or 50 years away if carbon pollution continues at its current pace, one study author said.

This type of extreme heat “would go from essentially virtually impossible to relatively commonplace,” said study co-author Gabriel Vecchi, a Princeton University climate scientist. “That is a huge change.”

The study also found that in the Pacific Northwest and Canada climate change was responsible for about 3.6 degrees (2 degrees Celsius) of the heat shock. Those few degrees make a big difference in human health, said study co-author Kristie Ebi, a professor at the Center for Health and the Global Environment at the University of Washington.

“This study is telling us climate change is killing people,” said Ebi, who endured the blistering heat in Seattle. She said it will be many months before a death toll can be calculated from June’s blast of heat but it’s likely to be hundreds or thousands. “Heat is the No. 1 weather-related killer of Americans.”

In Oregon alone, the state medical examiner on Wednesday reported 116 deaths related to the heat wave.

The team of scientists used a well-established and credible method to search for climate change’s role in extreme weather, according to the National Academy of Sciences. They logged observations of what happened and fed them into 21 computer models and ran numerous simulations. They then simulated a world without greenhouse gases from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas. The difference between the two scenarios is the climate change portion.

“Without climate change this event would not have happened,” said study senior author Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at the University of Oxford.

What made the Northwest heat wave so remarkable is how much hotter it was than old records and what climate models had predicted. Scientists say this hints that some kind of larger climate shift could be in play — and in places that they didn’t expect.

“Everybody is really worried about the implications of this event,” said study co-author Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, a Dutch climate scientist. “This is something that nobody saw coming, that nobody thought possible. And we feel that we do not understand heat waves as well as we thought we did. The big question for many people is: Could this also happen in a lot of places?”

The World Weather Attribution team does these quick analyses, which later get published in peer-reviewed journals. In the past, they have found similar large climate change effects in many heat waves, including ones in Europe and Siberia. But sometimes the team finds climate change wasn’t a factor, as they did in a Brazilian drought and a heat wave in India.

Six outside scientists said the quick study made sense and probably underestimated the extent of climate change’s role in the heat wave. That’s because climate models used in the simulations usually underestimate how climate change alters the jet stream that parks “heat domes” over regions and causes some heat waves, said Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann.

The models also underestimate how dry soil worsens heat because there is less water to evaporate, which feeds a vicious cycle of drought, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA and the Nature Conservancy.

The study hit home for University of Victoria climate scientist Andrew Weaver, who wasn’t part of the research team. “Victoria, which is known for its mild climate, felt more like Death Valley last week,” Weaver said. “I’ve been in a lot of hot places in the world, and this was the worst I’ve ever been in.

“But you ain’t seen nothing yet,” he added. “It’s going to get a lot worse.”

____

The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content. Read more stories on climate issues by The Associated Press at https://www.apnews.com/Climate

National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) is comprehensive

From the Allegheny Blue Ridge Alliance, ABRA Update #225 — April 11, 2019

The opening brief in a lawsuit challenging the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) certificate that allows construction of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline (ACP) was filed on April 5 with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia. Appalachian Voices, et. al. vs. FERC, which includes several ABRA members as plaintiffs, had originally been filed with the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals. It was subsequently transferred to the DC Circuit Court where it was consolidated with several other pending cases that challenged the FERC certificate for the ACP.

The principal arguments made in the April 5 brief are:

1. FERC’s exclusive reliance on precedent agreements with affiliated monopoly utilities to establish market need for the project was arbitrary and capricious. Such precedent agreements are unreliable evidence for market need.

2. FERC’s Environmental Impact Statement on the ACP was seriously deficient and thus violated requirements of the National Environmental Protection Act (NEPA). Specifically:

• FERC failed to adequately consider the adequacy of existing transmission systems and off-forest alternative routes;

• The impacts to aquatic resources, including sedimentation impacts and impacts in karst terrain, were inadequately analyzed by FERC;

• Analysis of environmental justice impacts by FERC was flawed;

• Impacts of downstream greenhouse gas emissions were insufficiently considered;
and

• FERC’s refusal to use the Social Cost of Carbon without an adequate explanation was arbitrary and capricious.

3. Allowing the ACP, LLC to exercise eminent domain violates the Natural Gas Act and the Constitution because 1) several required permits and related conditions for the project have been vacated, thus removing the basis on which eminent domain authority should be exercised, 2) the use of eminent domain for the ACP thus violates the takings clause of the Constitution and also violates due process.

A copy of the complete brief is available here.

Wayne National Forest borders WV on Ohio River

BLM limits comment period for Wayne National Forest leasing for oil and gas to May 31 deadline

(Wayne National Forest borders Wetzel, Tyler & Pleasants Counties of WV on the Ohio River)

From an Article by Terry Smith, Akron News Record, May 25, 2016

The federal government apparently plans to stick with a May 31 closing date for the comment period on a draft Environmental Assessment for leasing subsurface acreage in the Wayne National Forest’s Marietta Unit for oil and gas drilling.

Environmental groups opposing the plan had requested an extension of the comment period along with a public hearing.

In a public notice emailed on Tuesday, the federal Bureau of Land Management (BLM) urged “interested members of the public to review and comment on the EA” by the end of the comment period on May 31.

The draft EA includes a finding of no significant environmental impact on leasing federal oil and gas resources on about 40,000 subsurface acres. Some 18,000 of those acres are being considered for leasing.

Four groups who oppose drilling on the national forest held a press conference at the U.S. Forest Service’s Wayne National Forest Headquarters southeast of Nelsonville on May 18, restating their opposition and requesting an extension of the comment period.

At the same time, groups representing owners of land adjoining the federal land in the National Forest’s Marietta Unit have been lobbying the BLM to move forward on the leasing plan. In many cases, these private landowners can’t lease their own property for drilling until the adjoining federal land has been opened for leasing.

The EA’s preliminary “finding of no significant impact” does not become official until after the draft EA issued by the BLM becomes final. After the comment period is over, pertinent federal officials will have to review public input before finalizing the EA and the related finding of no significant impact.

The EA in question only involves designated acreage on the Wayne’s Marietta Unit for which more than 50 oil-and-gas industry “expressions of interest” have been submitted, but not the Athens or Ironton units of the national forest.

In the yet-to-be-signed finding of no significant impact, BLM District Manager Dean Gettinger, states, “Based upon a review of the EA and supporting documents, I have determined that the proposed action (leasing of 18,494 acres in the Wayne’s Marietta Unit) is not a major federal action, and will not significantly affect the quality of the human environment, individually or cumulatively, with other actions in the general area.”

In general, the BLM noted in the EA that the preliminary act of leasing the national forest acreage doesn’t authorize “surface-disturbing activities.” Rather, the draft EA, if approved following the comment period, will “provide the lessee(s) exclusive rights to explore and develop oil and gas reserves on the lease.” In order to proceed with drilling, according to the BLM documents, the oil/gas company would have to apply for a drilling permit in line with federal requirements.

In their press conference/demonstration May 18 at the Wayne National Forest Headquarters near Nelsonville, representatives of four grassroots environmental groups, in addition to requesting an extension of the BLM’s comment period for the leasing program for oil and gas drilling on the forest’s Marietta Unit, asked for a public hearing on the draft EA.

The groups included the Athens County Fracking Action Network (ACFAN), which organized the event, the Buckeye Forest Council, Ohio Sierra Club and Torch Can Do.

In the news release announcing the event, Heather Cantino of ACFAN stated, “The BLM as a federal agency is charged with involving the public in such an important decision as opening our Forest to fracking (deep-shale horizontal hydraulic fracturing). Fracking was not in the 2006 Wayne National Forest Plan so must be fully evaluated with full public input, according to federal law. I’ve spent eight hours trying to decipher the BLM’s so-called Environmental Assessment (EA) and so far find it to be gobbledygook.”

She added, “It will take me many more hours to figure out if there’s any science in this document. So far I can’t find any.”

A public hearing is necessary, she argued in the release, so federal officials can explain the confusing information in the EA. “We need a public hearing so that the public can share its extensive knowledge of the issues and our various attempts at understanding these confusing and consequential documents – with one another, with our community, and with federal officials,” she said. “We must then have time to write meaningful comments.”

Environmental Groups insist that allowing leasing, and then fracking, on the Wayne National Forest poses a significant risk to natural resources and public health, both from the drilling itself and associated fracking-waste injection wells.

At the May 18 press conference, ACFAN member Roxanne Groff – also a Bern Township (Athens County) trustee – reiterated why the groups are demanding a public hearing and comment period extension.

“We must all insist on an extension of the public comment period and a public hearing, which the BLM is allowed to grant as their responsibility to all citizens for the most robust public involvement, and which is required by federal law for major federal actions that may significantly affect the forest and human environment.

“To say that fracking our (national) forest will not have significant impacts is preposterous,” she declared.”

Comments on the draft environmental assessment can be emailed to blm_es_comments@blm.gov; faxed to 414-297-4409, attn: Kurt Wadzinski; or mailed to BLM Northeastern States District, Attn: Kurt Wadzinski, Planning & Environmental Coordinator, 626 E. Wisconsin Ave., Suite 200, Milwaukee, WI 53202-4617.

Interstate Pipeline Activities in WV & VA — Meetings & Other Information

From Elise Keaton, Greenbrier River Watershed Association, March 27, 2015

Mountain Valley Pipeline has announced two open houses to address the concerns of citizens along their proposed alternative routes:

Monday, April 6 (5:30-7:30 pm) Union Church of God Fellowship Center, Bud Ridge Road, Union, WV 24983.

Tuesday, April 7 (5:30-7:30 pm) Craig County High School Gymnasium, 25239 Craig’s Creek Road, New Castle, VA 24127

>>>>>>>>>>

The Forest Service has re-opened the comment period so people can submit comments about the Mountain Valley Pipeline’s revised application to conduct pipeline surveys in the Jefferson National Forest.

Comment deadline is April 2!

Click here to Comment Online

For more information about the proposal and how to send individual e-mails and letters click here.

>>>>>>>>>>

In the News

Area residents speak for, against pipelines at FERC meeting

Bridgeport, WV – Area residents both for and against the proposed 42-inch, 550-mile Atlantic Coast Pipeline shared their thoughts with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) during a scoping meeting at Bridgeport High School’s auditorium Tuesday.

>>>>>>>>>>

Upcoming Meetings and Events –  www.mareproject.org

Saturday, March 28 at 1 pm- Community and information meeting at the Buckhannon American Legion 16 S Kanawha St, Buckhannon,WV 26201 (Upshur County) with presentations by the Greenbrier River Watershed Association and Lawyers with Appalachian Mountain Advocates.

Tuesday, March 31 at 6:00 pm – Preserve Monroe Meeting at the Library in Union, WV (Monroe County).

Friday and Saturday, April 3-4 – Join us in Rock Camp, WV (Monroe County) for ” FRACK-tose Intolerant Festival” as we use music and art to fight the Mountain Valley Pipeline, the Atlantic Coast Pipeline, and fracking in the Virginias! This event is FREE to attend, though there is a $10 per person CAMPING FEE for those wishing to camp out on Pinky’s Farm! (Must be 18+ or accompanied by a PARENT/LEGAL GUARDIAN to camp).

Thursday, April 9 at 5:30 pm – Greenbrier County Board of Health public health and safety information gathering forum at Western Greenbrier Middle School (Greenbrier County).

Saturday, April 11 at 10am-4pm – WV-VA Water Quality Monitoring Program at the Linwood Community Library in Slaty Fork, WV (Pocahontas County). Please pre-register for this event by contacting the Eastern Shale Gas Monitoring Coordinator Jake Lemon at 814-779-3965 or jlemon@tu.org by Tuesday April 7.

>>>>>>>>>>

If you appreciate the work we are doing, please consider a donation today!

Elise Keaton, elise@greenbrier.org

Greenbrier River Watershed Association, 120 W. Washington Street, Suite #4, Lewisburg, WV 24901