The ice sheets in Antarctica are melting faster and faster

From an Article by Jessica Corbett, Common Dreams News, 4/9/21

A new study is shedding light on just how much ice could be lost around Antarctica if the international community fails to urgently rein in planet-heating emissions, bolstering arguments for bolder climate policies.

The study, published Thursday in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, found that over a third of the area of all Antarctic ice shelves—including 67% of area on the Antarctic Peninsula—could be at risk of collapsing if global temperatures soar to 4°C above pre-industrial levels.

An ice shelf, as NASA explains, “is a thick, floating slab of ice that forms where a glacier or ice flows down a coastline.” They are found only in Antarctica, Greenland, Canada, and the Russian Arctic—and play a key role in limiting sea level rise.

“Ice shelves are important buffers preventing glaciers on land from flowing freely into the ocean and contributing to sea level rise,” explained Ella Gilbert, the study’s lead author, in a statement. “When they collapse, it’s like a giant cork being removed from a bottle, allowing unimaginable amounts of water from glaciers to pour into the sea.”

“We know that when melted ice accumulates on the surface of ice shelves, it can make them fracture and collapse spectacularly,” added Gilbert, a research scientist at the University of Reading. “Previous research has given us the bigger picture in terms of predicting Antarctic ice shelf decline, but our new study uses the latest modelling techniques to fill in the finer detail and provide more precise projections.”

Gilbert and co-author Christoph Kittel of Belgium’s University of Liège conclude that limiting global temperature rise to 2°C rather than 4°C would cut the area at risk in half. “At 1.5°C, just 14% of Antarctica’s ice shelf area would be at risk,” Gilbert noted in The Conversation.

While the 2015 Paris climate agreement aims to keep temperature rise “well below” 2°C, with a more ambitious 1.5°C target, current emissions reduction plans are dramatically out of line with both goals, according to a United Nations analysis.

Gilbert said Thursday that the findings of their new study “highlight the importance of limiting global temperature increases as set out in the Paris agreement if we are to avoid the worst consequences of climate change, including sea level rise.” And, “If temperatures continue to rise at current rates,” she said, “we may lose more Antarctic ice shelves in the coming decades.” Also, “Limiting warming will not just be good for Antarctica — preserving ice shelves means less global sea level rise, and that’s good for us all,” Gilbert added.

The researchers warn that Larsen C—the largest remaining ice shelf on the Antarctic peninsula—as well as the Shackleton, Pine Island, and Wilkins ice shelves are most at risk under 4°C of warming because of their geography and runoff predictions.

Low-lying coastal areas such as small island nations of Vanuatu and Tuvalu in the South Pacific Ocean face the greatest risk from sea level rise, Gilbert told CNN. “However, coastal areas all over the world would be vulnerable,” she warned, “and countries with fewer resources available to mitigate and adapt to sea level rise will see worse consequences.”

Research published in February examining projections from the Fifth Assessment Report of the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as well as the body’s Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate found that sea level rise forecasts for this century “are on the money when tested against satellite and tide-gauge observations.”

A co-author of that study, John Church of the Climate Change Research Center at the University of New South Wales, said at the time that “if we continue with large ongoing emissions as we are at present, we will commit the world to meters of sea level rise over coming centuries.”

Parties to the Paris agreement are in the process of updating their emissions reduction commitments—called nationally determined contributions—ahead of November’s United Nations climate summit, known as COP26.

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Sea level rise will be extreme as melting accelerates

See also: ‘A dire prediction’ on melting ice sheets and rising sea levels – Los Angeles Times, April 7, 2016

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See also: “Will the world ever be all under water?” | Ed Mathez, American Museum of Natural History (AMNH)

If all the ice covering Antarctica , Greenland, and in mountain glaciers around the world were to melt, sea level would rise about 70 meters (230 feet). The ocean would cover all the coastal cities.

The 15 state ORSANCO / ORBA region

From the Ohio River Basin Alliance, Cincinnati, October 21, 2020

The Ohio River Basin Alliance released a sweeping strategy today to help the 15-state region and its more than 25 million residents tackle urgent environmental threats and economic needs, including inadequate river infrastructure, pollution to the river and its tributaries, and increased flooding that is only expected to get worse due to climate change.

“The regional plan provides a roadmap for needed investments that will benefit millions of people in the region by boosting our economy, protecting our drinking water, restoring our environment, protecting our public health, supporting our outdoor recreation, and improving our quality of life,” said Harry Stone, chairperson of the Ohio River Basin Alliance. “We have a historic opportunity to stand up for communities large and small in the region—and we are going to do it. We look forward to working with stakeholders in the region, as well as local officials, governors, and members of Congress to implement these common-sense solutions, before these challenges get more difficult and costly. We have solutions, and it’s time to use them.”

The plan, which covers portions of the states of Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Mississippi, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia and West Virginia, highlights six regional priorities:

>> Restoring the river, its tributaries and ecosystems to protect the health of people, fish, and wildlife;
>> Addressing flooding to protect vulnerable communities and infrastructure;
>> Ensuring abundant clean water for people, fish and wildlife, and businesses;
>> Increasing nature-based recreation and tourism;
>> Growing water-borne commerce and ensuring efficient waterborne commerce through adequate lock and dam infrastructure; and,
>> Supporting robust research and education to inform the needs and opportunities of the region.

The goal is for the regional strategy to be implemented by collaborating with local communities, states, and federal government and other diverse partners that leads to robust new federal investment in the region, akin to what other regional initiatives have received in the Chesapeake Bay, Florida Everglades, Great Lakes, Gulf Coast, and Puget Sound. The next phase is to craft implementation plans for the six goals.

“We look forward to working with local partners to put forward solutions that benefit our environment, economy, and communities—especially those communities that have historically borne the brunt of pollution and environmental harm, such as people of color, low-income and rural communities, and Tribal Nations,” said Stone. “We have an obligation and responsibility to help all of the people who call the region home, and we believe that the regional plan can lift all boats.”

The “Plan for the Ohio River Basin 2020 – 2025 Planning Assistance to States Study” was funded and performed under an agreement between Ohio River Valley Water Sanitation Commission and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Louisville District, with financial support from the Commonwealth of Kentucky. The plan received input from a diverse set of stakeholders, including state and federal agencies, colleges and universities, businesses, industry associations, cities, and non-governmental organizations.

The Ohio River basin covers 204,000 square miles encompassing parts of 15 states. It is home to over 25 million people. The Ohio River supplies drinking water to more than 5 million people.

Ohio River Basin Alliance, a collaboration of Ohio River Basin stakeholders and stakeholder organizations, was formed in 2009 to fill the need for an organization to speak for the Basin holistically by capturing the highest priorities of the numerous organizations of the Basin and advocating for the ecological health and economic well-being of this world class basin through sound laws, policies, and projects, and the funds to support them. ORBA is a collaboration that includes more than 250 representatives from over 130 states, local and federal agencies, industry, academia, and nonprofit organizations in the Ohio River Basin. ORBA’s purpose is to foster broad collaboration to advance education and science; promote the conservation of natural resources in the Ohio River Basin; and achieve sustainable economic growth, ecological integrity and public safety across and within political jurisdictions within the Ohio River Basin.

Read the plan at: http://bit.ly/ORBAplan

ORBA Address:
Ohio River Basin Alliance, 5735 Kellogg Ave, Cincinnati OH 45230

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See the list of sample sites and parameters

OEM Equipment in the ready near the Wetzel-Tyler County border

NOTE: Article by Ed Parsons, Tyler Star News, December 12, 2018

Tom Cooper, Director of the Tyler County Office of Emergency Management, occupies storage and office space in the Paden City Industrial Park through a lease agreement with the Tyler County Commmission and the Paden City Development Authority.

On a recent visit to the site, Cooper gave a detailed description of the equipment and supplies his office currently manages. Inside the building, located on the South end of the Industrial Park, is approximately 40,000 square feet of space available to the OEM. Cooper, along with county volunteers and LEPC members, have an array of emergency equipment to their disposal.

“Everything here is for the citizens of Tyler County. We have search and rescue equipment, emergency supplies, temporary shelters, communication devices, bottled water, first aid equipment, trailers set up for disasters, and much more. However, everything here is available, not only for the local people, but anyone in the state who may need assistance,” Cooper said.

Tyler County OEM has a treasure trove of equipment at the ready, in case disaster strikes. “We work for you, but we also partner with industry, business and response agencies. We partner with healthcare facilities. We have emergency shelter for 72 people, including special needs and pets.”

To say the amount of equipment, -which also includes at least 15 trailers, all which are full of supplies and materials in case of disasters – is impressive would be an understatement.

Cooper and a handful of volunteers have put together a treasure of life-saving equipment. There is anything from communication devices to generators powerful enough to power the city of Paden City if needed. Two huge generators, portable lighting, and training equipment for search and rescue dogs are located in the warehouse.

One trailer, which is known as the command center, houses several computers and weather forecasting machinces hooked into the National Weather Service. These centers include radios, televisions, and meeting rooms, along with outside electrical outlets for the generators to run the trailer in rural areas.

Also in the storage area is a trailer with several smaller generators for emergency use and two water rescue boats, one which is state-of-the-art and another which has been in use for around 19 years.

“Most everything we have here has been purchased with grant money. We work directly with Homeland Security, and we have strong support from our county commissioners,” added Cooper. “Alot of what we do and what you see is a direct result of our relationship with other counties and respect we have with them and for them. We are partners with many different emergency response agencies, and we try to keep good relationships with them all. Everything that we have here is at the disposal of any agency who needs our help.”

Cooper also gave a brief tour of his office space, which includes phone lines computers, monitors, and way too much to list. Cooper, who formerly worked in local industry, said he recognizes the needs of industry, and he recognizes there are ways they can help the communities in which they are located. He pointed out, as an example, two fork lift trucks which he said were donated by a local plant. According to Cooper, the OEM has had a need for both of them, and currently one is on loan to another facility. He said one was used to lift water and food a couple years ago when power was out in the county due to a major storm.

While speaking about the two boats, Cooper said they are set up for the dogs that are trained to find bodies in water. He showed where the dogs sit and how they can move from the front of the boats, along the side, sniffing the water for scents. He said the small boat was actually used to locate a body in the Ohio River, with the assistance of one of the dogs provided by trainers and owners who partner with Tyler County. He said some are even members of the Tyler County LEPC.

Tom Cooper, director of the Tyler County OEM, can be reached at his office in Paden City via e-mail tjcooper@frontier.com

URL: http://www.tylerstarnews.com/page/content.detail/id/563512/OEM-Headquarters-Is-Prepared-for-Disaster.html?nav=5008

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Rover Pipeline donating $270,000 to emergency responders in 4 states | Michigan Live, February 26, 2018

https://www.mlive.com/business/ann-arbor/index.ssf/2018/02/rover_pipeline_donating_270000.html

Forced moves from the red areas to the blue areas

From an Article by Oliver Milman, The Guardian, September 24, 2018

A study published last year found that the economies of the southern states, along with parts of the west, will suffer disproportionately as temperatures rise. In what researchers called potentially one of the largest transfers of wealth in US history, the poorest third of counties are expected to lose up to 20% of their income unless greenhouse gas emissions are severely curtailed. Wealth, and potentially people, are expected to shift north and west.

Meanwhile, cities already struggling with heat will see wealthy residents head for cooler climes. Last year, 155 people died in Phoenix due to a particularly fierce summer. Increasing heat will start testing the durability of the populace, even those shielded by air conditioning. In the western states, wildfires are getting larger, razing homes in ever more spectacular ways and choking thousands of people with carcinogenic smoke.

Further to the south, at the border, there are suggestions that people from Central America are being nudged towards the US because of drought and hurricanes in their homelands, part of a trend that will see as many as 300 million climate refugees worldwide by 2050.

“People will get very grumpy and upset with very hot temperatures,” said Amir Jina, an environmental economist at the University of Chicago who co-authored the research on economic losses. “Even if you have air conditioning, some areas start to look less habitable. By the middle of the century parts of the south-west and south-east won’t look attractive to live in.

“That insidious climate migration is the one we should worry about. The big disasters such as hurricanes will be obvious. It’s the pressures we don’t know or understand that will reshape population in the 21st century.”

Prodded to name refuges in the US, researchers will point to Washington and Oregon in the Pacific north-west, where temperatures will remain bearable and disasters unlikely to strike. Areas close to the Great Lakes and in New England are also expected to prove increasingly attractive to those looking to move.

By 2065, southern states are expected to lose 8% of their US population share, while the north-east will increase by 9%. A recent study forecast that the population in the western half of the US will increase by more than 10% over the next 50 years due to climate migration, largely from the south and midwest.

But these population shifts are uncertain and are bound by a tangle of other factors and caveats. People will still largely follow paths guided by nearby family or suitable jobs. Even those who do want to move may find favoured locations too expensive.

Some will just grimly hang on. “With property rights as strong as they are in the US, some people may choose to go down with the ship,” said Harvard’s Keenan. “The question is whether they have the means and the options to do anything else.”

“People can usually cope with being a little less comfortable, but if you see repeated storms or severe damage to crops, that will trigger change,” said Solomon Hsiang, who researches how climate change will affect society at the University of California.

“There will be pressure to move a little north. It won’t be everyone, though, it won’t be like the great migration of wildebeest in Africa. Whole cities picking up and moving would be hugely expensive.”

Smaller towns are giving relocation a go, however. In 2016, the community of Isle de Jean Charles in Louisiana was the first place to be given federal money to replant itself. The population, situated on an island being eaten away by the sea, is looking to move to a former sugar cane farm 30 miles inland.

“We are called climate refugees but I hate that term,” said Chantal Comardelle, who grew up in the Isle de Jean Charles community.

“We will be the first ones to face this in the modern US but we won’t be the last. It’s important for us to get it right so other communities know that they can do it, too.”

About a dozen coastal towns in Alaska are also looking to relocate, as diminishing sea ice exposes them to storms and rising temperatures thaw the very ground beneath them. One, Newtok, has identified a new site and has some federal funding to begin uprooting itself.

A buyout of damaged and at-risk homes has already occurred in New York City’s Staten Island in the wake of Hurricane Sandy, while certain flood-prone houses in Houston, pummeled by Hurricane Harvey last year, are also being purchased and razed.

But the cost of doing this for all at-risk Americans would be eye-watering. Estimates range from $200,000 to $1m per person to undertake a relocation. If 13 million people do have to move, it seems fantastical to imagine $13tn, or even a significant fraction of this amount, being spent by governments to ease the way.

“As a country we aren’t set up to deal with slow-moving disasters like this, so people around the country are on their own,” said Joel Clement, a former Department of the Interior official who worked on the relocation of Alaskan towns.

“In the Arctic I’m concerned we’ve left it too late. Younger people have left because they know the places are doomed. These towns won’t be relocated within five years and I’m sure there will be a catastrophic storm up there. My hope is no lives will be lost.”

Ultimately, the US will have to choose what it wants to defend and hope its ingenuity outstrips the environmental changes ranged against it. Not everyone will be able to shelter behind fortifications like the ‘big U’ planned to defend lower Manhattan. Wrenching decisions will have to be made as to what and where will be sacrificed.

“We won’t see whole areas abandoned but neighborhoods will get sparse and wild looking, the tax base will start to crumble,” said Stoddard, mayor of South Miami. “We don’t have the laws to deal with that sort of piecemeal retreat. It’s magical thinking to think someone else will buy out your property.

“We need a plan as to what will be defended because at the moment the approach is that some kid in a garage will come with a solution. There isn’t going to be a mop and bucket big enough for this problem.”

Climate change is the primary issue confronting the world today

From the Opinion Column of Thomas L. Friedman, New York Times, Sept. 11, 2018

What if Trump’s tax cuts, deregulation, scrapping of Obamacare without any alternative and military spending surge were actually ill-thought-through, short-term-focused initiatives that all ignored expert opinion — because they mostly emerged from off-the-cuff remarks at Trump pep rallies — and collectively amount to a sugar high that not only will be unsustainable but will leave our economy far more vulnerable in the long term?

Let’s take that view for a spin: I favor corporate tax cuts — big ones. But I would have offset them with a carbon tax, a tax on sugar and a small financial transaction tax. That way, we’d unleash the energy of our corporations while mitigating climate change, spurring the next great global industry — clean power — curbing childhood asthma and diabetes and not adding to our national debt, thereby making ourselves more resilient as a country.

When Trump simultaneously cuts corporate taxes and withdraws America from the Paris climate accord, tries to revive the coal industry by lowering pollution standards and weakens fuel economy standards for U.S.-made cars and trucks, he is vastly adding to the financial debts and carbon debts that will burden our children.

And he is doing this despite many economists warning that increasing thedeficit when your economy is already growing nicely is really, really reckless — because you may need that money to stimulate your way out of the next recession.

And he is doing this at a time when virtually every climate scientist has warned that global-warming-driven extreme weather events — droughts, floods and wildfires — are sharply on the rise and we are staring through the last window of time to mitigate climate change so that we can manage the impacts that are already unavoidable and avoid the impacts that will be terrifyingly unmanageable.

In June, The Associated Press reported on the latest International Monetary Fund survey of the U.S. economy, which concluded that as a result of Trump’s “tax cuts and expected increases in defense and domestic programs, the federal budget deficit as a percentage of the total economy will exceed 4.5 percent of G.D.P. by next year — nearly double what it was just three years ago.” Such a “big boost … has not been seen in the United States since President Lyndon Johnson in the late 1960s boosted spending on the Vietnam War at the same time it was adopting Johnson’s Great Society programs.”

The National Debt Clock topped $21 trillion in July. (Associated Press)

Faced with so much debt, which the country will not be able to grow out of, The A.P. story continued, paraphrasing the I.M.F. report, the U.S. “may need to take politically painful steps,” such as cutting Social Security benefits and imposing higher taxes on consumers. (We’ll probably also have to limit spending on new roads, bridges and research.)

You might want to let your kids know that. You might also want to share with your kids the recent study from a group of Australian climate scientists who modeled the damage to different economies if we don’t work together to achieve the Paris climate accord’s goal of limiting the increase in global average temperature by 2100 to less than two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

The rise in sea level will require massive movements of people and cities, and the soaring heat levels will cause losses in agricultural productivity and declines in human health across the globe. As a result, the study found, the economic impacts of ignoring the Paris limits will be “comparable to the Great Depression of the 1930s, with its global fall in G.D.P. of 15 percent, except these will occur year after year, with no way for effective redress. … Many governments around the globe won’t be able to cope and will, to put it simply, fail.”

Note: President Trump promised to support the coal industry (again) at a rally in Charleston, W.Va., in August.

U. S. Monitor for Sea Level Rise

The Navy’s efforts to respond to sea level rise

From an Article by Jay Price, WUNC, North Carolina Public Broadcasting, March 20, 2017

When President Donald Trump visited a shipyard at Newport News, VA, this month, he told an audience of sailors and shipbuilders that the United States would defeat any danger and handle any threat. But one of the biggest threats to the military is one that Trump didn’t mention: sea level rise.

In the Hampton Roads region of Virginia, which includes Norfolk and Newport News, the battle with the rising sea is a matter of national security because the low-lying area is home to so many military bases that it has been called the world’s greatest collection of military might. The shipyard where Trump appeared is the only facility that builds American aircraft carriers. The region also hosts key Navy, Air Force, Marine and Coast Guard bases, one of the nation’s busiest ports, and several cities and towns.

So, there’s a lot at risk. And the clock is ticking faster than almost anywhere else. A few miles from the shipyard, at one end of a pier on Naval Station Norfolk, the federal government has recorded some of its most alarming data about climate change.

Since 1927, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has had a tidal gauge at Sewells Point, the peninsula where the base sits. It has recorded the highest relative sea level rise on the East Coast, nearly 15 inches. And that rate is expected to accelerate in coming years.

Flooding already is so routine that giant rulers have been erected beside the city roads outside the base to show whether water is too deep to drive into.

In little more than two decades the main road into the base could be flooding almost daily at high tide.

When the Navy adds new buildings or replaces infrastructure like a pier or barracks, it builds them higher, said Capt. Dean VanderLey, who heads engineering for Navy infrastructure along much of the East Coast.

But there’s no specific overall plan for protecting the whole base from flooding
or the increasing risk of catastrophic damage in a hurricane. “Fortunately it’s not going to hit us overnight,” VanderLay said. “But it’s something where I don’t know that we’ve fully defined the problem and we have definitely not fully defined the solution.”

The unusual flooding risks at Hampton Roads were highlighted in a report last summer by the Union of Concerned Scientists. It said 128 U.S. installations are at risk from sea level rise. Those include Camp Lejeune, where low-lying areas could flood daily by the year 2100, including barrier islands where the Marines train for their signature amphibious landings.

The iconic Marine training depot on Parris Island also could be mostly under water by then, along with two of the many military bases in Hampton Roads. But the problem in Hampton Roads isn’t just military.

“When it comes to sea level rise, the local communities and the Navy really work hand-in-hand,” VanderLey said. “And if you think about it, it wouldn’t be helpful even if the Navy decided to make the Naval Station for a fortress that was impervious to the sea because all of our people live in the community, our utilities come from the community…. so we’re really hand-in-hand with the community.”

Because of the high stakes for national security — and the speed of sea level rise — the Obama administration had turned Hampton Roads into a test bed for ideas for use in other seaside cities and bases.

Ray Toll, a former Navy Captain, is a sea level rise expert at Old Dominion University in Norfolk. He headed a project to develop a model for multiple levels of government, branches of the service, and other types of agencies to work together to deal with rising seas.

That led to other projects, including the first Pentagon-funded study by local governments of how to handle sea level rise. And there was a $120 million grant from the Department of Housing and Urban Development that’s mostly being used to come up with ways to blunt the effects of flooding for a Norfolk neighborhood.

But that was HUD under Obama. Now the agency falls under Trump, who has called climate change a hoax and whose administration removed Obama’s Climate Action Plan from the White House web site within minutes of Trump’s inauguration.

Tolls says the various studies and planning efforts wouldn’t have happened without federal funding, and actually building infrastructure to blunt the effects will require a lot more money. “So what happens if it dries up?” he said. “I worry that if we lose the momentum, then what has happened might atrophy away.”

The Trump Administration is proposing a $54 billion increase in defense spending, and a big question is whether any of it will be aimed at sea level rise. If not, that could be a sign that progress will be greatly delayed for the next four or eight years.

That’s a long time to wait for solutions, especially here in Hampton Roads, said Penn State University professor David Titley, a retired rear admiral and meteorologist who once led the Navy’s climate change task force.

“Norfolk, my guess is 10 to 15 years and if we don’t get serious by then, we’re really cutting it close,” he said. “Maybe some of the other places we’ve got another decade, or couple of decades or so, but it’s coming.” The slow-motion nature of the threat is a big part of the danger because it allows procrastination — even for politicians who believe that sea level rise is a dire threat.

But Titley says the longer that significant action is delayed, the more likely the Pentagon will be forced to handle sea level rise as a crisis rather than a challenge. “There’s a saying: There are two things of little use to a Navy Naval aviator,” he said. “One is altitude above you, and one is runway behind you. In my view we are putting more and more runway behind us.”

This means sinking down really close to the end  … and hoping there’s enough left to land on without crashing.

NOTE:  See Photo Above — Capt. Dean VanderLey, commanding officer of Naval Facilities Engineering Command for the Mid-Atlantic region, standing in front of NOAA’s Sewell’s Point tidal gauge, which measures the sea level at Naval Station Norfolk, the world’s largest naval base.

Summer 2016 WV Flood Damages

Climate Change is Here and Now, Dire NOAA Report Warns

From an Article by Nadia Prupis, Common Dreams, August 2, 2016

‘The impacts of climate change are no longer subtle. They are playing out before us, in real time’

Last year’s record heat was fueled by a combination of the effects of global warming and one of the strongest El Niño events on record since at least 1950. And, environmental records of all kinds are being shattered as climate change takes effect in real time, scientists are warning!

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) released its annual State of the Climate report with the dire warning that 2015 was the hottest year on record since at least the mid-to-late 19th century, confirming the “toppling of several symbolic milestones” in global temperature, sea level rise, and extreme weather.

“The impacts of climate change are no longer subtle,” Michael Mann, a leading climate scientist at Penn State, told the Guardian. “They are playing out before us, in real time. The 2015 numbers drive that home.” Last year’s record heat was fueled by a combination of the effects of global warming and one of the strongest El Niño events on record since at least 1950, NOAA said.

“When we think about being climate resilient, both of these time scales are important to consider,” said Thomas R. Karl, director of NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. “Last year’s El Niño was a clear reminder of how short-term events can amplify the relative influence and impacts stemming from longer-term global warming trends.”

NOAA listed the report’s highlights:

• Greenhouse gases highest on record. Major greenhouse gas concentrations, including carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane and nitrous oxide, rose to new record high values during 2015. The annual average atmospheric CO₂ concentration at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, the location of the world’s longest direct measurements of CO₂, was 400.8 parts per million (ppm), which surpassed 400 ppm for the first time. This was 3.1 ppm more than 2014, and was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year record. The 2015 average global CO₂ concentration was not far below, at 399.4 ppm, an increase of 2.2 ppm compared with 2014.
• Global surface temperature highest on record. Aided by the strong El Niño, the 2015 annual global surface temperature hit record warmth for the second consecutive year, easily surpassing the previous record set in 2014 by more than 0.1°C (0.2°F). This exceeded the average for the mid- to late 19th century — commonly considered representative of preindustrial conditions — by more than 1°C (1.8°F) for the first time. Across land surfaces, record to near-record warmth was reported across every inhabited continent.
• Sea surface temperatures highest on record. The globally averaged sea surface temperature was also the highest on record, breaking the previous mark set in 2014. The highest temperature departures from average occurred in part of the northeast Pacific, continuing anomalous warmth there since 2013, and in part of the eastern equatorial Pacific, reflective of the dominant El Niño. The North Atlantic southeast of Greenland remained colder than average and was colder than 2014.
• Global upper ocean heat content highest on record. Globally, upper ocean heat content exceeded the record set in 2014, reflecting the continuing accumulation of thermal energy in the upper layer of the oceans. Oceans absorb over 90 percent of Earth’s excess heat from global warming.
• Global sea level highest on record. Global average sea level rose to a new record high in 2015 and was about 70 mm (about 2¾ inches) higher than the 1993 average, the year that marks the beginning of the satellite altimeter record. Over the past two decades, sea level has increased at an average rate of 3.3 mm (about 0.15 inch) per year, with the highest rates of increase in the western Pacific and Indian Oceans.
• Extremes were observed in the water cycle and precipitation. A general increase in the water cycle, combined with the strong El Niño, enhanced precipitation variability around the world. An above-normal rainy season led to major floods in many parts of the world. But globally, areas in “severe” drought rose from 8 percent in 2014 to 14 percent in 2015.

Global surface temperature in 2015 easily beat the previous record holder, 2014, for the title of warmest year in the modern instrument record. The long-term warming trend of the surface and lower atmosphere continued. (Image: NOAA)

Meanwhile, the Arctic continues to lose sea ice, impacting marine life by forcing walruses to shore and sending fish populations out of the region; harmful algal blooms spread in the northeast Pacific; and tropical cyclones worldwide were well above average, NOAA said.

The report is released amid a rash of climate-related nightmares taking place around the world. In Maryland, historic rainfall killed multiple people this week; in Siberia, melting permafrost released long-dormant deadly anthrax into the air, sickening several people and killing thousands of reindeer; in the Middle East last week, scorching temperatures smashed historic heat records for the Eastern Hemisphere.

Kate Willett, a senior scientist at the U.K.’s Met Office, told the Guardian on Tuesday, “Looking at a range of climate measurements, 2015 was yet another highly significant year. Not only was 2015 the warmest year on record by a large margin, it was also another year when the levels of dominant greenhouse gases reached new peaks.”

The Lancet: Fossil Fuels Are Killing Us… Quitting Them Can Save Us

From an Article by Jon Queally, Common Dreams, June 23, 2015

Comparing coal, oil, and gas addiction to the last generation’s effort to kick the tobacco habit, doctors say that quitting would be the best thing humanity can do for its long-term healing.

The bad news is very bad, indeed. But first, the good news: “Responding to climate change could be the biggest global health opportunity of this century.”

That message is the silver lining contained in a comprehensive newly published report by The Lancet, the UK-based medical journal, which explores the complex intersection between global human health and climate change.

“It took on entrenched interests such as the tobacco industry and led the fight against HIV/AIDS. Now is the time for us to lead the way in responding to another great threat to human and environmental health.” — Prof. Peng Gong, Tsinghua University

The wide-ranging and peer-reviewed report—titled Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health—declares that the negative impacts of human-caused global warming have put at risk some of the world’s most impressive health gains over the last half century. What’s more, it says, continued use of fossil fuels is leading humanity to a future in which infectious disease patterns, air pollution, food insecurity and malnutrition, involuntary migration, displacement, and violent conflict will all be made made worse.

“Climate change,” said commission co-chairman Dr. Anthony Costello, a pediatrician and director of the Global Health Institute at the University College of London, “has the potential to reverse the health gains from economic development that have been made in recent decades – not just through the direct effects on health from a changing and more unstable climate, but through indirect means such as increased migration and reduced social stability. Our analysis clearly shows that by tackling climate change we can also benefit health. Tackling climate change represents one of the greatest opportunities to benefit human health for generations to come.”

The four key findings of the report include:

1. The effects of climate change threaten to undermine the last half-century of gains in development and global health. The impacts are being felt today, and future projections represent an unacceptably high and potentially catastrophic risk to human health.

2. Tackling climate change could be the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century.

3. Achieving a decarbonized global economy and securing the public health benefits it offers is no longer primarily a technological or economic question – it is now a political one.

4. Climate change is fundamentally an issue of human health, and health professionals have a vital role to play in accelerating progress on mitigation and adaptation policies.

“When health professionals shout ‘emergency’ politicians everywhere should listen.” —Mike Childs, Friends of the Earth“Climate Change is a medical emergency,” said Dr. Hugh Montgomery, commission co-chair and director of the UCL Institute for Human Health and Performance. “It thus demands an emergency response.”

With rising global temperatures fueling increasing extreme weather events, crop failures, water scarcity, and other crises, Montgomery says the report is an attempt to make it clear that drastic and immediate actions should be taken. “Under such circumstances,” he said, “no doctor would consider a series of annual case discussions and aspirations adequate, yet this is exactly how the global response to climate change is proceeding.”

In a companion paper published alongside the larger report, commission members Helena Wang and Richard Horton explained why human health impacts are an important part of the larger argument regarding climate change:

When climate change is framed as a health issue, rather than purely as an environmental, economic, or technological challenge, it becomes clear that we are facing a predicament that strikes at the heart of humanity. Health puts a human face on what can sometimes seem to be a distant threat. By making the case for climate change as a health issue, we hope that the civilizational crisis we face will achieve greater public resonance. Public concerns about the health effects of climate change, such as undernutrition and food insecurity, have the potential to accelerate political action in ways that attention to carbon dioxide emissions alone do not.

Responding to the findings and warnings contained in the report, Mike Childs, the head of policy for the Friends of the Earth-UK, said the message from one of the world’s foremost institutions on public health has given powerful new evidence to the argument that “radical action is urgently required” to avoid further climate catastrophe.

“When health professionals shout ‘emergency’,” Childs said, “politicians everywhere should listen.”

Going from diagnosis to prescribing a remedy, the doctors and scientists involved with the report—who equated the human health emergency of climate change with previous physician-led fights against tobacco use and HIV/AIDS—argue the crisis of anthropogenic climate change demands—as a matter of “medical necessity”—the rapid phase-out of fossil fuels (with special emphasis on coal) from the global energy mix. In addition, the authors say their data on global human health support a recommendation for an international carbon price.

“The health community has responded to many grave threats to health in the past,” said another commission co-chair, Professor Peng Gong of Tsinghua University in Beijing, China. “It took on entrenched interests such as the tobacco industry and led the fight against HIV/AIDS. Now is the time for us to lead the way in responding to another great threat to human and environmental health.”

The Commission argues that human health would vastly improve in a less-polluted world free from fossil fuels. “Virtually everything that you want to do to tackle climate change has health benefits,” said Dr. Costello. “We’re going to cut heart attacks, strokes, diabetes.”

A video, produced by the Commission and released alongside the report, also explains:

As Wang and Horton conclude in their remarks, “Climate change is the defining challenge of our generation. Health professionals must mobilize now to address this challenge and protect the health and well-being of future generations.”

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Not ‘If’ But ‘How’: New Study Shows Why All Extreme Weather Is Climate Related

From an Article by Nadia Prupis, Common Dreams, June 23, 2015

New research explains why people debating whether or not specific events are caused by climate change have it all wrong

The debate over climate change has long focused on determining attribution—whether rising greenhouse gases and global warming caused a particular storm, drought, flood, or blizzard. Now, a new study in Nature Climate Change published Monday seeks to shift the underlying question from “if” to “how.”

“The climate is changing,” wrote National Center for Atmospheric Research scientists Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo and University of Reading physicist Theodore Shepherd in their study, Attribution of Climate Extreme Events. “The environment in which all weather events occur is not what it used to be. All storms, without exception, are different. Even if most of them look just like the ones we used to have, they are not the same.”

Climate Central, a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization was formed in 2008 with seed money from The Flora Family Foundation and development funds from 11th Hour Project. The founding board members were Jane Lubchenco, Professor of Marine Biology and Zoology at Oregon State University; Stephen Pacala, Professor of Biology and Director of Princeton’s Institute for the Environment; and Wendy Schmidt, founder of The 11th Hour Project. Headquarters is in Princeton, NJ and an office in Palo Alto, CA.

The climate crisis isn’t just some far-off threat, it’s a clear and present danger. Therefore, Climate Central has created a unique form of public outreach, informed by our own original research, targeted to local markets, and designed to make Americans feel the power of what’s really happening to the climate. The goal is not just to inform people, but to inspire them to support the actions needed to keep the crises from getting worse.

A report from Climate Central entitled “Surging Seas” as been prepared and is posted on-line.  This report can be summarized thusly:

Global warming has raised sea level about 8 inches since 1880, and the rate of rise is accelerating. Scientists expect 20 to 80 more inches this century, a lot depending upon how much more heat-trapping pollution humanity puts into the sky. This study makes mid-range projections of 1-8 inches by 2030, and 4-19 inches by 2050, depending upon location across the contiguous 48 states.

The increases are likely to cause an enormous amount of damage. At three quarters of the 55 sites analyzed in this report, century levels are higher than 4 feet above the high tide line. Yet across the country, nearly 5 million people live in 2.6 million homes at less than 4 feet above high tide. In 285 cities and towns, more than half the population lives on land below this line, potential victims of increasingly likely climate-induced coastal flooding. 3.7 million live less than 1 meter above the tide.

This report and its associated materials, based on two just-published peer-reviewed studies, is the first major national analysis of sea level rise in 20 years, and the first one ever to include:

• Estimates of land, population and housing at risk;
• Evaluations of every low-lying coastal town, city, county and state in the contiguous U.S.;
• Localized timelines of storm surge threats integrating local sea level rise projections; and
• A freely available interactive map and data to download online (see SurgingSeas.org).

In order to avoid the worst impacts from sea rise, we all need to work to reduce emissions of heat-trapping gases (mainly methane and carbon dioxide) and work to diminish the remaining danger by preparing for higher seas in coastal cities and counties everywhere.