Costs are escalating dramatically every decade

From an Article by Bob Berwyn, InsideClimate News, August 25, 2020

Lisa Paul was still recovering from the wildfire trauma of 2017 when she experienced a renewed wave of sickening dread last week, the skies above her home and vineyard in the mountains east of Sonoma, California, filled with lightning that sparked hundreds of wildfires.

“I had pretty close to a panic attack when the Hennessy Fire, near Lake Berryessa, exploded into almost a mushroom cloud,” she said, adding that she could see the blaze just over the hills, “where the 2017 fires crested.”

The Wine Country fires of two years ago were fanned by a diablo wind that pushed the flames directly toward her property, destroying gardens, orchards and vineyards.

Those fires killed 22 people and damaged or destroyed more than 5,600 structures, burning across about 56 square miles. Property damage totaled $14.5 billion. Firefighting costs were estimated at $1.5 billion.

One year later, the $16.5 billion Camp Fire burned across 240 square miles and incinerated the town of Paradise in Butte County, California, about 180 miles northeast of Sonoma, killing 85 people and destroying or damaging more than 18,000 buildings.

The cost of this year’s fires—the first of which have so far burned their way across more than 1,400 square miles, destroyed hundreds of structures and are still not close to being contained—can’t even be guessed at. Fire season is just beginning. And global warming is going to make it worse, according to a new analysis commissioned by the nonprofit advocacy organization Environmental Defense Fund that looks at the cost of climate-linked natural disasters.The report details how the financial impacts of fires, tropical storms, floods, droughts and crop freezes have quadrupled since 1980.

“It shows what happens if we don’t do anything about global warming,” said EDF’s Elgie Holstein. “There’s no denying the trends and the fact this all becomes more expensive going forward.”

Extreme Weather Disasters are Proliferating — As if to underscore Holstein’s point, the latest swarm of wildfires to erupt in northern and central California have pushed the state’s wildfire fighting capacity to the edge, with officials warning that they are running out of resources to respond to new blazes, and urgently requesting help from other regions.

Here are five take-aways from the report:

1. Climate Disasters are Expensive, and the Damage is Increasing

In the last 40 years, 663 disasters linked to climate change in the United States killed 14,223 people. The total cost: an estimated $1.77 trillion, a bit more than Canada’s Gross National Product in 2018.

Economic losses in Europe resulting from climate-linked extreme weather from 1980 to 2017 were lower, totaling $537 billion. The difference was the cost of tropical storms, which don’t affect Europe but accounted for nearly half of the U.S. total costs.

The report analyzed data going back to 1980 from several sources, including a database of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that catalogues climate disasters with costs of $1 billion or more and is continually updated. Only disasters with costs of that magnitude were included in the analysis.

The $1.77 trillion total cost in the United States included $954.4 billion from 45 tropical storms and hurricanes, by far the most costly extreme weather category. Next came $268.4 billion in costs from 125 hail, wind, ice storms and blizzards, followed by $252.7 billion from drought, $150.4 billion from flooding and $85.4 billion from wildfires.

In the 1980s, the annual average cost of climate and extreme weather disasters in the United States was about $18 billion per year. By the 2010s, the total annual cost more than quadrupled, to $80 billion per year.

A key assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change estimated that the the economic damage caused by climate change will continue to increase by about 1.2 percent of the U.S. gross domestic product for every 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit warming, coming out to $257 billion, just a little more than California’s entire current state budget of $222 billion.

2. Scientific Evidence Shows Strong Links to Climate Change

Tropical storms, hurricanes, droughts and floods account for about three-quarters of the cost of the extreme weather damage categorized in NOAA’s $1 billion disaster database, and there is strong scientific evidence showing that global warming caused by humans is making their impact worse. Based on that research, the EDF report says the current costs are “only a lower bound to what is anticipated” if global temperatures continue to rise.

Here are the costs of various types of disasters in the United States in the 40 years from 1980 to 2020, and how global warming is making such extreme weather worse.:

Most of the damage from tropical storms and hurricanes is caused by flooding, and damage from the storms totaled $954.4 from 1980 to 2020. The warmer the atmosphere gets, the more moisture it can hold, at the rate of 7 percent for every 1.8 degree Fahrenheit warming. So tropical storms also have the potential to produce heavier rains.

One study showed that global warming made Hurricane Harvey three times more likely and 15 percent more intense.

Other research suggests that hurricanes may stall more often over coastal areas to drop devastating rainfall, and there are signs that global warming will cause an increase in the number of the largest and most damaging hurricanes, prompting warnings of “super storms.”

Research also suggests hurricane paths are shifting, potentially threatening new areas that aren’t expecting destructive storms.

Added to that is the steady increase in sea level rise, which is happening faster in tropical and subtropical areas where hurricanes are active. Low-lying coastal areas are increasingly being swamped by sunny flooding because the ocean is creeping up. When a hurricane pushes a storm surge on shore, it magnifies that increase, pushing coastal flooding farther inland.

Droughts accounted for 14.1 percent of the total cost of climate-linked disasters in the 40-year period analyzed in the EDF report, totaling $252.7 billion, nearly the size of the annual budget of Germany, the world’s fourth-largest economy.

Global warming makes drought worse because a warmer atmosphere sucks moisture out of the ground and from plants, and also shifts rain patterns, as well as the timing and melt of snow.

One indicator of the change is the steep decline of spring season snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere. That trend sets the stage for drying during the hottest summer months.

Global warming is drying up the Colorado River Basin and the larger surrounding Southwest region, with huge implications for the 40 million people who depend on the river for water.

The current climate trajectory is toward a Southwest megadrought that could last for centuries, perhaps punctuated by a few decades of extreme rains.

Consistent with climate evidence from past geologic eras of warming, Earth’s dry subtropical belts, which include most of the world’s desert areas, are expanding poleward, which could be the force that’s driving the intensification of regional droughts.

Floods were the fourth-costliest type of extreme climate disasters from 1980 to 2020, accounting for $150.4 billion, about 8.4 percent of the total cost. Climate science shows that global warming is driving up extreme precipitation in some regions, leading to greater chances of flooding. Flooding from sea level rise alone is forcing coastal cities to spend millions to build seawalls and levees and protect water sources.

Global warming is changing snowfall and snowmelt patterns, tripling the risk of particularly destructive rain-on-snow floods, when unseasonable rain suddenly melts the snowpack.

Globally, the risk of glacier outburst floods is increasing, and a warming climate is changing seasonal flooding patterns, with new risks that some communities may not be expecting.

3. The Poor and People of Color Are Most Vulnerable

With nearly every climate-related disaster, poor people and people of color, and often, indigenous communities, are most vulnerable. They have the fewest resources to adapt, or to get themselves out of harm’s way.

During the current California wildfires, thousands of agricultural workers are harvesting produce in extreme heat and exposed to unhealthy levels of smoke that can cause severe illness. During the 2017 fires, some vineyards had to close because workers left after losing their homes.

A December 2019 study found that during Hurricane Harvey in 2017, “Hispanic, black and other racial/ethnic minority households experienced more extensive flooding than white households,” and lower income households faced more extensive flooding than higher income households.

A 2008 report from a Washington, D.C. think tank said that Hurricane Katrina in 2005 offered a “bitter gift” by refocusing attention on the enduring legacy of racial segregation and poverty in the Gulf South.

Climate experts have found that drought in Central America is part of the reason for a continued stream of migration to the United States, which can multiply the already existing environmental injustice in immigrant and refugee communities.

Globally, drought and water shortages have increased the potential for international conflicts.

4. Nowhere is Safe; Specific Threats Vary by Region

Nowhere is immune to the threat of increasing weather extremes, made more likely by global warming. The National Climate Assessment outlines the regional risks.

Based on the damage trends over the last 40 years, the Gulf Coast and the Southeastern United States are most at-risk for deadly and costly damages from sea level rise flooding, storm surge and the extreme winds of tropical storms and hurricanes.

Extreme rainfall events have increased substantially in the Midwest, leading to more extreme floods that damage homes and fields, and so also threatening food supplies.

The Southwest is threatened by a persistent and intensifying drought that has dried up forests and brushlands and drained rivers and reservoirs.

Wildfires have increased exponentially with warming temperatures, and global warming will increase the risk in most of the West, especially California, recent research concluded.

Parts of the East Coast are sea level rise hotspots, according to a 2017 study.

5. The Biggest Future Safeguard: A Zero Emissions Economy

The EDF report recommends that, to protect the most vulnerable communities that are hit by “climate change-fueled extreme weather events first and worst,” federal lawmakers should invest in adaptive strategies in advance of disasters and not just after the fact.

Coastal areas vulnerable to sea level rise and flooding from tropical storms should build up natural ecosystems like dunes and wetlands to buffer storm and sea level rise impacts

Some emergency response funds should be freed up to help with analyzing growing risks from floods and droughts.

Overall, the biggest goal must be to build a zero emissions renewable economy to avoid as much additional global warming as possible

The EDF report focused in part on decarbonizing the transportation sector by switching to electric vehicles. Electrification of school bus fleets and commercial trucks represent low-hanging fruit, the report said.

Modernizing regional electric grids will help integrate and maximize the benefits of the rapidly growing supply of renewable energy, according to the report. Making buildings more energy efficient is another short-term goal with a big payoff.

Finally, investing now in sustainable agriculture will help protect food supplies and farm livelihoods.

None of this is new, said EDF’s Holstein, who was a high-level NOAA official in the early 2000s. “We already knew ice caps were melting and that glaciers were retreating,” he said. “The changes we’re seeing are best explained by climate change. Nothing has changed, except all the indicators are moving in the direction of bad news. That’s what is in this report. There’s no denying the trends and the fact this becomes more expensive going into the future.”

Wild fires in Australia and elsewhere are extreme

From the Interview of Peter Dykstra by Steve Curwood

CURWOOD: It’s Living on Earth, I’m Steve Curwood. The signs of a changing climate seem to be emerging more and more behind the headlines, so for the latest we are on the line now with Peter Dykstra, an editor for Environmental Health News, that’s EHN.org and DailyClimate.org. Hi Peter!

DYKSTRA: Hi Steve, how often do you hear the phrase ‘the fire is too big to put out’ from firefighters? That’s what they’re saying about a huge bush fire outside of Australia’s largest city, Sydney. They say that the city may be couched in smoke for months to come.

CURWOOD: That is not very good news. And of course, it’s due to this massive drought over there.
DYKSTRA: We’ve seen pictures of the iconic Sydney Opera House, and the Sydney Harbour Bridge sort of covered in smoke. That’s the most populous area of the country. And it’s a very, very strong message that climate change is here to stay. And we’re also looking at others from around the world.

CURWOOD: Okay, what do you have in mind?
DYKSTRA: In Bali, tourism center in Indonesia, there’s a combination of drought and the increase in tourism that are really doing a number on the water supply.

CURWOOD: So running out of water for tourists who want their long showers and then how do you grow food?
DYKSTRA: Growing food is part of it. And it’s this inevitable clash between the tourist industry and tourists on one hand and the local residents on the other to get their day-to-day needs. But there’s still another one from Africa.

CURWOOD: Okay, and what’s that one?
DYKSTRA: Victoria Falls, another iconic tourist destination on the Zambezi River. More than half a mile long waterfall is running dry in a way that no one’s ever seen before as a result of the worst drought in that area in a century.

CURWOOD: So is there no water going over the falls or is it just sort of . . . .
DYKSTRA: It’s a trickle. There are some remarkable pictures where you see what used to be in what’s normally this cascade of water stretched out over half a mile. It’s now mostly barren cliffs with just a little stream heading over the falls.

CURWOOD: And I bet this isn’t the last of things along these lines that you’ve noted.
DYKSTRA: There’s one more unfortunately, we need to go to the Alps where it is winter and instead of the Southern Hemisphere summer, and winter, of course is ski season, and we’re looking at an increasing number of closed and even abandoned ski resorts in the Alps, due to a decline in skiable days during the winter months.

CURWOOD: Signs of climate disruption everywhere. Hey Peter, what else do you have for us today?
DYKSTRA: Well, here’s something it seems we’re mentioning this all the time. Unfortunately, we have to mention it again. Because last week, two more indigenous environmental activists, anti-logging activists, were murdered in what appears to be a drive-by shooting in the northeastern Brazilian state of Maranhao.

CURWOOD: Oh man, this is just happening way too much. I think last year 100 and, more than 160 environmental activists were killed. When will this stop do you think?
DYKSTRA: It’s, I don’t know that it’s ever going to stop. There are still brave people who have obviously literally put their lives on the line.

CURWOOD: What do we have from the annals of history for today, Peter?
DYKSTRA: There’s a 20th anniversary, and for me it’s hard to believe that this is already 20 years ago. December 18, 1999, Julia Butterfly Hill came down from the tree she had been sitting in for more than two years, a Northern California Redwood that was slated for cutting.

/// — Julia Butterfly Hill lived in a nearly 200 foot tall California redwood dubbed ‘Luna’ for 738 days to draw attention to the plight of forests. (Photo in Transcript) — ///.

CURWOOD: That tree, I believe, was called Luna.
DYKSTRA: Luna was the name given to the tree. There was an attempt to kill Luna out of spite. But as far as we know, the tree is still alive and well and growing and enormous. Something is different about Julia Butterfly Hill. Her website says she’s “no longer available to discuss the epic tree sit, and that her life has moved on.” I guess somebody that could deal with more than two years worth of absolute solitude may not want to deal with celebrity for the rest of her life.

CURWOOD: Who could blame her? Thanks, Peter. Peter Dykstra is an editor with Environmental Health News, that’s EHN.org and DailyClimate.org. We’ll talk to you real soon, right after the holidays.

DYKSTRA: Well good to talk to you as always and happy holidays to you and happy holidays to everyone.
CURWOOD: And there’s more on these stories at the Living on Earth website, LOE.org.

Related links:

Actress Diane Lane one of those arrested for protesting climate change

### Save the EARTH one VOTE at a time! YOUR VOTE COUNTS! ###

From an Article by Michael E. Mann, Washington Post, November 2, 2018

PHOTO in NEWSPAPER ARTICLE: Thick smoke covers a beach near the village of Sarti in Halkidiki, northern Greece, as a wildifire rages in the area on October 25th.

Summer 2018 saw an unprecedented spate of extreme floods, droughts, heat waves and wildfires break out across North America, Europe and Asia. The scenes played out on our television screens and in our social media feeds. This is, as I stated at the time, the face of climate change.

It’s not rocket science. A warmer ocean evaporates more moisture into the atmosphere — so you get worse flooding from coastal storms (think Hurricanes Harvey and Florence). Warmer soils evaporate more moisture into the atmosphere — so you get worse droughts (think California or Syria). Global warming shifts the extreme upper tail of the “bell curve” toward higher temperatures, so you get more frequent and intense heat waves (think summer 2018 just about anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere). Combine heat and drought, and you get worse wildfires (again, think California).

Climate scientists have become increasingly comfortable talking about these connections. Much like how medical science has developed key diagnostic tools, we have developed sophisticated tools to diagnose the impact climate change is having on extreme weather events.

One of these tools, “extreme event attribution,” can be thought of as climate science’s version of an X-ray. In this case, a climate model is run both with and without the human effect on climate. One then compares how often a particular extreme event happens in both the “with” and “without” cases. If it occurs sufficiently more often (i.e., beyond the “noise”) in the former case, a study can “attribute” and quantify how climate change affected the extremeness of the event.

The scorching European heat wave this summer, according to one such study, was made more than twice as likely by global warming. The record rainfall in North Carolina from Hurricane Florence was, according to another study, increased by as much as 50 percent by warming oceans.

The climate models used in these sorts of studies represent remarkable achievements in the world of science. But no tool is perfect. In our medical analogy, some injuries — such as soft tissue damage — are too subtle to be detected by an X-ray. So medical professionals developed even more sophisticated tools, such as MRI. Similarly, some climate-change impacts on extreme weather are too subtle to be captured by current generation climate models.

In a study my co-authors and I recently published in the journal Science Advances, we identified a key factor behind the rise in extreme summer weather events (such as the ones that played out in summer 2018) that — as we demonstrate in our study — is not captured by current generation climate models.

Using an alternative approach based on a combination of models and real-world observations, we showed that climate change is causing the summer jet stream to behave increasingly oddly. The characteristic continental-scale meanders of the jet stream (its “waviness”) as it travels from west to east are becoming more pronounced and are tending to remain locked in place for longer stretches of time.

Under these circumstances — when, for example, a deep high-pressure “ridge” gets stuck over California or Europe — we usually see extreme heat, drought and wildfire. And typically there’s a deep low-pressure “trough” downstream, stuck over, say, the eastern United States or Japan, yielding excessive rainfall and flooding. That’s exactly what happened in summer 2018. The spate of extreme floods, droughts, heat waves and wildfires we experienced were a consequence of such jet stream behavior.

Our study shows that climate change is making that behavior more common, giving us the disastrous European heat wave of 2003 (during which more than 30,000 people perished), the devastating 2011 Texas drought (during which ranchers ranchers in Oklahoma and Texas lost 24 percent and 17 percent of their cattle, respectively), the 2016 Alberta wildfire (the costliest natural disaster in Canadian history) and yes, the extreme summer of 2018.

Just as climate models almost certainly underestimate the impact climate change has already had on such weather extremes, projections from these models also likely underestimate future increases in these types of events. Our study indicates that we can expect many more summers like 2018 — or worse.

Climate-change deniers love to point to scientific uncertainty as justification for inaction on climate. But uncertainty is a reason for even more concerted action. We already know that projections historically have been too optimistic about the rates of ice sheet collapse and sea-level rise. Now it appears they are also underestimating the odds of extreme weather as well. The consequences of doing nothing grow by the day. The time to act is now.

>>> Michael E. Mann is director of the Penn State Earth System Science Center and co-author with Tom Toles of “The Madhouse Effect: How Climate Change Denial Is Threatening Our Planet, Destroying Our Politics, and Driving Us Crazy.”