Carbon dioxide & methane pollution has become the climate change problem

From an Article by David Wooley, Utility Dive, June 22, 2020

The following is a contributed article by David Wooley, professor at the UC Berkeley Goldman School of Public Policy and Executive Director of the Center for Environmental Public Policy.

What is the future of gas in the U.S. electric power sector? Is it essential, long-term, for a reliable and economical electric supply? A new study from UC Berkeley provides the latest answer, demonstrating it is technically and economically feasible to reach 90% clean electricity by 2035 without building any new gas plants and reducing generation from existing plants by 70%, all without any increase in wholesale power costs compared to today.

Let’s clear away the myths about gas, renewables and the grid.

1. First, there is a widely circulated assumption that gas is cleaner than coal. It’s true that gas power plants produce less acid gas (SO2, NOX) and metals emissions than coal, but greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from gas are not significantly lower than coal. Methane emissions occur along the gas supply chain, from getting gas out of the ground and to market. Methane has 84 times the global warming impact of CO2 from burning coal and gas, a fact often overlooked in gas industry promotions. The fact is that gas used to make electricity is not “clean” and remains a serious problem for the climate.

2. Second, there is the question of reliability and whether we can trust a renewables-heavy grid when the sun isn’t shining. The truth is, the U.S. power grid has always been reliable using a diverse set of generation types. Today low-cost wind and solar, paired with battery storage technologies and existing hydro, nuclear and gas generation allows the U.S. to dramatically increase renewable generation, and cut fossil fuel use, without sacrificing dependability or raising costs.

3. Third, there is an old argument that gas is cheaper than renewables. Well, not anymore. In recent years, utility-scale wind and solar plants routinely out-bid gas and coal in wholesale electric markets. This is in part due to federal tax credits, but gas production also enjoys a wide range of federal subsidies, and wind and solar plant costs in many cases are already lower than gas generation even without considering the tax credits.

And finally, people often ask if renewables are only cost effective in very sunny and windy regions of Southwest and Plains states. The answer is no. Low costs are now driving a geographic expansion of renewables, making wind and solar cost-effective in all regions of the country.

The latter points are driven home by the study released last week by the Goldman School of Public Policy at UC Berkeley. The 2035 Report finds that plummeting costs of zero-carbon technologies allows the U.S. electricity system to deeply decarbonize, and lower customer electricity costs compared to today. This is the first report to show that technologies widely available today can preserve a dependable grid, and achieve large employment, health and climate benefits by 2035.

The report finds that it is technically and economically feasible to do so without new fossil gas power plants. This stands in contrast to the oil and gas industry’s efforts to rapidly expand gas generation in the U.S. and globally. According to RMI, utilities and other investors have announced plans for over $70 billion in new gas-fired power plant construction through 2025 and another $30 billion for new interstate gas pipelines.

Maintaining a dependable grid with sustainable generation

The study shows that the existing fleet of domestic gas plants, operating infrequently in combination with hydro, nuclear and battery storage, is enough to support a dependable grid during times when wind, solar and battery generation is low. The 70% decrease in gas generation that would come with the transition to 90% clean electricity would drop gas’s share of U.S. electric generation from 37% to 10%.

Gas would remain a part of the electric sector, but at a much smaller level than today. This is a good thing, since methane and CO2 emission from gas production and use must decline steeply to have any chance of avoiding the worst impacts of climate change. A 90% clean electric generation sector reduces annual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 1.6 billion tons of CO2. The GHG benefits do not stop there, since deep carbon reductions in the electric sector are a key step to decarbonize transportation and buildings.

The economic benefits of this shift are attractive. A turn away from new gas and existing coal generation in favor of renewables and storage would produce a net increase of 530,000 energy sector jobs and boost the economy with $1.7 trillion of private investment for renewables and storage. The job benefits would be widespread since utility-scale solar generation and wind are economic winners in every region and low-cost wind power’s range is expanding fast.

The job benefits make this a powerful COVID-19 recovery strategy. Most of the economic benefits can be achieved quickly, without increased government spending.

Can the U.S. really build enough renewables and storage to displace gas? Yes. This is shown by the number of utility-scale renewables projects currently in development — wholesale market interconnection queues include 544 GW of wind, solar and storage plants — and historic growth rates for other forms of power generation, such as gas.

To reach 90% clean electricity by 2035, 1,100 GW of new wind and solar need to be built, averaging about 70 GW per year. We’ve built on this scale before — the U.S. added 65 GW of natural gas generation in 2002. Moreover, the wind, solar and storage industries believe they can do it.

What’s the catch? It won’t happen without changes in federal and state energy policy. Old habits, that no longer serve current needs, die hard. America’s current electricity policy framework and market systems cannot deliver on this economic opportunity. Every day brings news of coal plant retirements, and investment in renewable energy, but policy changes can accelerate this and help support recovery from the current economic crisis.

While many states and cities are leading the country by passing policies to decarbonize by 2050, in the electric power sector we can — and must — go much faster. This study shows that targeting 2035 for deep decarbonization is possible, would increase employment and inject investment into the economy, improve public health, and go a long way toward aligning U.S. policy with climate realities.

Solar Installations by Year

The growth of large scale photovoltaic electricity in the United States

Essay by S. Tom Bond, Resident Farmer, Lewis County, WV, May 4, 2017

Solar electricity generation is expanding far more rapidly than burning fossil fuels, because the cost is decreasing rapidly and because of global warming concerns. Both home installations and large scale photovoltaic generation are progressing rapidly according to a recent article in Science, the journal of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Installation costs in 1976 were over $90 per watt, but had fallen to 90 cents per watt by 2015. The installed volume has gone from about 750,000 kilowatts in1976 to 220 gigawatts (thousand kilowatts) in 2015. The curve is exponentially up, meaning each year’s increase is greater than the previous year.

Driving the increase is both improvements in the technology of the solar cells and improvements in manufacturing. A regular reader of Science notes developments in the efficiency and longevity of solar cells almost every month. Elsewhere we read that China, with its terrible environmental problems, is placing great emphasis on solar and has become the country with largest photovoltaic use, starting in 2015.

The article says, “Grid-integration technologies and flexibility options available today should enable at least 25% to 40% variable renewable energy (solar and wind) with feasible cost and stability.” Some engineering changes in procedure would be necessary, such as heating water at a time of day the energy is available.

Both solar and wind would benefit from electrical storage. The most efficient storage available is lithium-ion batteries. These are being developed for use in electrical automobiles, and the same size is suitable for home electrical storage. If the car stays in the garage (such as at night) the same battery can be used for both. Lithium-ion batteries are expected to come into use in the 2020’s.

The authors of the Science article predict storage of electricity for less than 2.5 cents per kilowatt by 2030. They state solar power at 3 cents per kilowatt-hour and storage at even 5 cents per kWh would be economically competitive by 2030. The solar industry is on a trajectory to reach this.

There are many things going on now that hurt the demand for fracked gas, but the public is largely unaware of them. One is a decline in the price of oil, due to the Saudi Arabia discovery that they did not need such a high price for their oil. Another is the fact the ACP and MVP pipelines, both 42 inch and operating at near 100 times atmospheric pressure at a maximum, passing through Virginia have attracted a gubernatorial candidate who is campaigning against them. Doubtless due to their widespread unpopularity.

Still another is the fact several huge chains, including Walgreens, Costco, Kohl’s, Ikea and Walmart are adopting solar on their roofs. Still another is whole cities planning to go all renewable. Atlanta becomes the 27th city to commit to 100% renewables.

The prospects for wind power also look very good.